Jarrett Jack Crunches the Numbers

Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes carried the Warriors when they needed it most

Analyzing a team is a combination of art and science.  Despite my love of statistical analysis, I use them to support my thesis.  Metrics should mostly be used to research an existing idea that is ascertained from watching the game, not as the genesis for an idea for what ails a team.  No one embodies that idea more than Jarrett Jack.

The Warriors evened the series yesterday at 2 apiece as the Warriors vs Spurs series went into overtime for the second time on Sunday.  With Steph Curry ailing on a weak ankle and Klay Thompson struggling, the Warriors needed more perimeter offensive help early.  Along with Harrison Barnes’ contribution, Jack kept the Warriors in the game in the first half.  Despite being down by 10 points at the half, without his contribution the Warriors may have given the Spurs a lead that was insurmountable heading into the back stretch of the game.

While Curry had a patented Curry 3^rd quarter (10 points on ¾ shooting) the Spurs still clung to a 62 to 60 lead heading into the 4^th.  Late in the game the Spurs were up 10 with roughly five minutes remaining, and then Jack happened.  Six straight points on two nearly identical high pick and rolls and a pick and roll that Jack dragged through the lane, all leading to a barrage of midrange jumpers from the backup point guard.  They were points when the Warriors had to have buckets.  It helped spark the 25-7 run that the Warriors closed the show with on Mother’s Day.

It was Mother's Day, and Steph Curry was playing. Reason enough.

Jack has been vilified for his poor court vision and propensity to shoot early in the shot clock, or not facilitate ball movement in a classic point guard fashion.  I must admit, there are possessions that make me wonder why he overdrives into a clogged lane when moving the ball seems like the obvious decision, or why he may choose to take an early shot despite a teammate having a hot hand. Moreover, his +/- point differential per 100 possessions (a statistic used to measure the team’s point production in relation to its opponent) is a mediocre +1.2.

Jack’s contribution can’t be boiled down to statistical analysis.  Jack provides an invaluable service for the team, allowing Curry to move off the ball while simultaneously being a legitimate scoring threat from the point guard position.  And in the late afternoon of a contested Game 4, he showed his mettle (and value) to the Golden State team.  He’s their spark, a mixture of toughness and bullheadedness.  He has largely been the overlooked contributor on most teams, even dating back to his college days at Georgia Tech.  He has vacillated between point guard and shooting guard, almost as often as he has changed from reserve to starter on the five teams for which he has played.

His vast experience is an anomaly on a team where several of the star contributors are under the age of 25 with a dearth of big-time NBA minutes.  According to reports, he will opt out of his contract at the end of the year; a contract that is due to pay him 5.4 million.  With a relatively weak draft class, and several teams with ample cap room, the likelihood of inflated contract offers to free agents is virtually a certainty. I’m hoping the Warriors find a way to re-sign him, but with a player option of over 11 million dollars due to Richard Jefferson it could be extremely costly to do so.  So make hay while the sun shines Golden State, because the numbers look like they won’t be in Jack’s favor once again.

The Curious Case of Derrick Rose

There are more than a few fans side-eyeing Rose these days

The cache that Derrick Rose has been building up throughout his career is being spent more and more completely with every passing basket made by the Bulls’ opposition.  Rose was injured nearly a year ago today in last year’s playoff series against the 76ers.  Since he was drafted number one by his hometown team, Rose has enjoyed as much local and (because of the size and influence of Chicago) national backing as any modern athlete who hasn’t won a title.

This manipulative emotional Adidas advertising spot and the poignant Rose press conference announcing the launch of his shoe D Rose 3 are indicative of the type of full-fledged support that Rose enjoyed during his arduous process of getting back on the court post injury.  During his journey to recovery, the Bulls gutted out a 5^th seed while being 2^nd to last in points scored per game (obviously missing their superstar point guard), and battling through a litany of other injuries to other key players.

Every week after the All-Star game brought better and better news about Rose.  First, he was making cuts.  Then Rose was participating in drills on the court; then he was playing well in practice.  All that was left was for him to come back onto the court and join his team.  Moreover, Iman Shumpert of the Knicks who also suffered a torn ACL during the first round of the playoffs was back in January.  The pressure began to mount.

Shumpert has been back since January, but has yet to return to his rookie form

Fast forward to February when Rose’s brother and manager, Reggie, insinuated that Derrick wasn’t back playing because of the Bulls’ inactivity in the free agent market. Add to that the fact that Derrick’s agent (former Bulls’ player and executive BJ Armstrong) has a bit of a contentious relationship with the organization, and suddenly the unshakable support had come undone.  In game 2, Joakim Noah played on one foot through his own injury, to lead the Bulls to a win that evened the series and gave homecourt advantage to Chicago.

Rose has been a great player for the Bulls and even with him at full strength the odds that they would beat the Heat and represent the East in the NBA Finals are long.  Still, as long as he sits in those well-tailored suits and not in his snug jersey, there will be contention.  In his defense, if this dilemma to play has shown the star (and players at large) is that there is no loyalty in sports; not even from the fans. 

Amongst my generation that grew up with free agency as common place, the love for the name on the front of the jersey will always supersede the love for the name that adorns the back.  When players can leave at the drop of a hat (or more likely, production) it is a defense mechanism to protect our hearts and distance ourselves from players.  Let’s just hope that this hasn’t jaded us too badly, and gives Rose the time he feels he needs to recover.

Bucks vs Heat: Game 2 recap

Was there ever a doubt?

This game started off about as wacky and backwards as it could have.  The Heat (usually a very good ball-handling team) committed several turnovers that led to more possessions for the Bucks.  Milwaukee’s scoring backcourt of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings couldn’t buy a basket in the first half—seriously, they didn’t score one field goal (0/7) the entire 1^st half of the game. They did, however, assist on 8 baskets as the frontcourt players attacked relentlessly.  Mike Dunleavy, Larry Sanders, Marquis Daniels and Luc Mbah a Moute all shot and rebounded well enough to keep the Bucks in the game.  Combine that with the 2/9 3 pt shooting that plagued the defending champions in the first half, and you get the 47-43 Heat lead.

While some things were quirky, LeBron James’ production was as regular and phenomenal as ever. 15 points and a few assists were efficiently garnered on 5/6 shots in 18 minutes.  The second half brought more of the same from Ellis and Jennings, both continued to facilitate and struggle with their own shot (Ellis finally broke the basket-less streak with a transition layup with 8:24 left in the quarter).  But their ability to draw a crowd on the pick and roll allowed Sanders more room to cut to the basket and amass his points at the rim.

Not to be outdone by the opposing frontcourt player, Chris Bosh began to show his teeth on offense with some drives and jumpers in the lane.  Dwyane Wade was similarly offensive minded with a series of highlight plays including this one.   Still, missed shots and turnovers allowed Milwaukee to stay in the game and to get into transition.  The Bucks finished the 3^rd Quarter on a 5-0 streak and within 3 points with a score of 65-68.

In the first minute and a half the Heat showed what they have shown all year: The ability to turn up.  Defensively they blocked shots, played passing lanes, and had a 12-0 run in the blink of an eye that stretched the lead to 15 before Bucks coach Jim Boylan was forced to call a timeout with 9:37 remaining in the game.  Suddenly the Bucks going 0/2 with two turnovers put them out of the game.  After that, the game was essentially over. LeBron and Wade closed the show and retained the homecourt advantage for the Heat.

Interestingly, John Henson (who plays a similar role to Sanders with his ability to protect the cup and dive to the basket) got virtually no time in the second game.  While I can understand not wanting too many bigs on the court clogging the lane and preventing Jennings and Ellis from driving, Henson has the lateral quickness to switch on Pick and Rolls that are the staple of Miami’s offense.  Combine that with the fact that adding a quality rebounder like Henson against the worst rebounding team in the league, and his ability to protect the cup with his shot blocking, and it seems like there would be a place for the former Tar Heel in the rotation.

No one is under any illusions about the Bucks’ chances to win the series; hell, you may have trouble finding a bet that they’d win a game.  But getting the young core legitimate time could be invaluable moving forward for them and the franchise. 

Grizzlies vs Clippers: A fight for Philosophy

Clippers PG (and NC native) putting the finishing touches on his masterpiece

The Clippers continued their effective scoring as soon as the game started.  The pace was up and down and featured dunks by Blake Griffin (who scored 11 points in the 1^st, one more point than his total in game 1) and DeAndre Jordan.  The Grizzlies, however, responded well with their own quick-hitting offense that was opportunistic in transition.  Mike Conley took the reigns of the offense and was more aggressive getting the team in their offense more quickly than in the previous game.  Moreover, Conley looked for his own shot more in addition to finding teammates (he sparkled, scoring 28 points and adding 9 assists).

The 2^nd quarter produced more of the same, with both teams shooting well.  By the end of the half though, the Grizzlies began to revert to their less effective halfcourt offense as Zach Randolph continued to struggle with the athleticism and length of the Clippers front line.  The team relied on Conley for the bulk of its perimeter scoring, and buffered that with Gasol to stay within shouting distance.  At the end of the half, the Clippers held a six point lead. Their lead was built in no small part to Jamal Crawford going full-on Super Saiyan.

All game it felt as if the Clippers should be ahead by more points.  The Clippers filled the game with its classic show-stopping hijinx.  There were plenty of times when the Grizzlies simply looked outgunned by an offensively superior team.  Yet, the Grizzlies kept clawing their way back into the game.  The cat and mouse game looked to come to a close early in the 4^th Quarter as the Clippers took a 12 point lead with 3:47 to play. With Zach Randolph on the bench in foul trouble Darrell Arthur answered the call and (along with Conley) helped string together a 9-2 run that tied the game with 1:37 left to play.  The Clippers had hit a lull.  Despite all of its offensive success, their halfcourt offense deteriorated into long jumpshots that led to immediate defensive rebounds and allowed the Grizz to get back in a game that looked to be out of their reach most of the final period.

Zach Randolph has been in foul trouble all series trying to slow down Griffin

The dueling point guards traded baskets and plays as Chris Paul pulled his “closer” cape out with his own series of isolation plays (going 3 out of 4 from the field to close the game).  The best player on the court, fittingly, ended the game on this dramatic drive to the cup, a fist pump, and a nonchalant walk to his teammates.

The next game is in “The Grind House” in Memphis.  Obviously a loss would mean that (for all intents and purposes) the series would be over.  This series has been a litmus test on the mid-season Rudy Gay trade.  While their numbers (wins, defense efficiency, and offensive efficiency) have been similar to last year with Gay, the test was always going to be how they fared in the playoffs.  in the postseason it is more difficult to score because the opposition prepares more and the possessions per game drop.  Early on, the acquisition of Tayshaun Prince and company has yielded little in terms of results.  Prince has been an abysmal 3/15 over the two games, and his defense hasn't been as helpful given that the Clippers don’t have a primarily scorer he can guard.  I hope that Austin Daye (another piece of the Gay trade) will get more time and boost the anemic output of the bench.  Daye’s shooting ability from deep may give Zach Randolph and Gasol more space to operate. 

From a macrocosm outlook, it may help answer the importance of “star players” in the postseason.  Despite statistics that supported the trade (that was done to save Memphis from being over the punitive luxury tax), the classic thinking in basketball has always been that stars are better in the postseason than role players because of their ability to score when the offense breaks down.