Perfect Strangers

Winning or abject embarrassment. Those are the only options #GoodLuck

So a weird thing keeps happening on America’s romp to the gold medal in men’s basketball.  These cats keep teetering on the edge of losing. After the Australia game that was a spirited competition throughout, the big test for the team looked to be over (at least for pool play).  Instead, the ten point margin of victory (a bit misleading given the closeness of the majority of the contest) has proven to be their largest in the past three games. Since then, they’ve beaten Serbia and France by three points apiece.

Obviously the international basketball landscape has changed a ton since the 1992 Olympic Dream Team. The NBA employs a large contingent of people from other continents, so the days of the USA jersey making opponents faint like Scarlett O’Hara at the BET awards are done. Instead, the US team has faced two or more current/former NBA players in four of the team’s five opening games (get it together, Venezuela).

The USA program was supposed to be radically different as well.  Following the Assault in Athens (best I could do, there should be some sort of alliteration for that squad) the entire domestic basketball landscape was altered to foster more internationally-friendly basketball teams that are more adept at playing together.  This team is a bit of a throwback.  Despite having multiple wings and interchangeable players, there are few traditional point guards (Kyle Lowry is the most experienced in this regard, and if you saw him in the playoffs…yea).  Moreover, due to some late-ish scratches, the team isn’t as talented as recent ones, hasn’t played as much together at all.

Perhaps even more interesting than the rocky road the US team is currently traversing, the underscoring of the importance of chemistry—and the contrast of on-court vs off-court chemistry.  Anyone that has seen the Snapchat or social media of the team members (look at me not making a Draymond Green joke), can see that they get along.  But on court they still look like talented players from disparate teams.  If this team does end up losing it’ll be because of a lack of communication on the defensive end (watching one play after another get beaten on backdoor cuts, or simple pick and roll defense getting cut to ribbons has been rough) or offensively going 1-on-5.

But hey, if you think they’ll lose you can get some good odds on all the other teams in the tournament. Because what’s more American than finding a way to make money in a tough situation?

A Look Philadelphia 76ersAround the League: Eastern Conference Also-Rans

Your fortunes can change just that quickly in this game (Sports Illustrated)

Most teams have about a dozen or so games to go before the playoffs.  While there will be a ton of focus on those teams, this would be a good time to say goodbye to the fourteen other squads as they depart this earthly regular season. This edition of A Look Around the League focuses on the present and future of the teams we’ll cease to see this come postseason time. Part 1 will be solely about the Eastern Conference teams already looking forward to the offseason, with a brief recap of their 2015-2016 season. Note: if a team still has a somewhat legitimate chance to make the postseason, they have not been included.

The 76ers' biggest acquisition may be Jerry Colangelo (Bill Streicher USA Today Sports)

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers trusted the process right into a new head guy of bball ops (Jerry Colangelo's official title is “Chairman of basketball operations”) after having Sam Hinkie convince his boss that losing was actually better than winning for three seasons, the owner (under a bit of pressure?) hired Colangelo, who is now finally giving a timeline to hitting that light at the end of the tunnel. Their top picks in the most recent drafts, Jahlil Okafor and  Joel Embiid were shut down for the season and will hopefully be ready to go when the next season rolls around. One thing is certain, with new decision-makers in place, the NBA’s nightmare of an experiment is coming to a close.

Sean Marks will have his hands full as the new GM in Brooklyn (Getty Images)

Brooklyn Nets

As sad as the 76ers have been for years, the Nets are going to be worse. The team’s future was mortgaged for about a year and change of old superstars.   As such, their front office shake up moving Billy King out and replacing him with Sean Marks will more than likely have little effect.  There are dark days ahead for Brooklyn, if you want to get out now as a fan, no one would blame you.

You think Melo is rethinking his no-trade clause? (Getty Images)

New York Knicks

I don’t mean to pile on the city of New York but…it wasn’t a banner year of basketball for the east coast’s largest city. After starting out the season reasonably well (and wouldn’t anything be reasonably good after a franchise-low number of wins last year?), the Knicks fell on hard times and eventually jettisoned their head coach and former Phil Jackson protégé, Derek Fisher.  The future looks good with rookie sensation Kristaps Porzingis’ surprisingly good first campaign and Carmelo Anthony’s continued greatness.  There are still more roster moves to be made to establish themselves as a playoff contender, but overall the franchise’s outlook is brighter than at this time last year.

Can Skiles help develop the Magic's young stars like he did in OKC? (Getty Images)

Orlando Magic

This team is perilously close to becoming the Miami Dolphins of the NBA—the team that is hyped in the media to make the leap and manages to fall short. They’ve drafting of Elfrid Peyton, Victor Oladipo, and Nikola Vucevic has been deft, but attracting free agents has been an issue for the team.  A consideration that may only worsen as the salary cap jumps and every team will be flush with cash.  The team recently hired Head Coach Scott Skiles for his penchant for developing young talent. Hopefully he will be able to improve their young core like he did in Oklahoma City. The team’s most glaring weakness is on the offensive end, where they currently rank 26^th in points per possession.  Contributing to their offensive woes is the team’s lack of consistent three point shooting, they are in the bottom half of the league in both attempts and percentage of makes. Hopefullly Skiles can work his (ahem) Magic on this roster and Florida’s 0% state tax can work its powers of seduction of free agents.

Fait Accompli: Ben Simmons' Loss Season

Simmons Has faced his share of criticism over the past year (Getty Images)

While reading the stellar Jonathan Givony of Draftexpress (a must read for tournament time and NBA draft junkies such as myself) I came across an article detailing a myriad of reasons why Ben Simmons could/should belosing his spot as the inevitable first pick in this June’s NBA draft. Specifically, Givony outlined four reasons that a change at the top of the draft was warranted; his competitiveness, hollow box scores, poor defense, and character issues all stemmed back to a perceived general apathetic approach to the game. Givony, as usual, seemed to hit the nail on the head.  I watched several LSU games and Simmons (at times) appeared to be stoically resigned to the LSU casually piled up over the course of their oddly forgettable season. What I believe Givony missed was the real-life context that may have been the driving factor for the perceived indifference Simmons displayed.

Ben Simmons was born July 20^th, 1996 less than a month after Kobe Bryant was selected 13^th by the Charlotte Hornets. The NBA officially adopted what has been deemed the “One and Done” rule as a part of the 2005 collective bargaining agreement.  So for the duration of Simmons’ life, he has seen Kobe Bryant and LeBron James dominating the NBA.  There was no question as to whether a player straight out of high school could play at an elite level.  So perhaps he attacked the prospect of one year of college basketball much in the same way that many attacked their first jobs; as a necessary evil that was a means to an end. With the exception that that job was required…and unpaid.  Add that to the fact that the team he selected based on a familial relationship was devoid of sufficient talent, and this season simply petered out to a whimpering conclusion.

This summer, Simmons will finally get an opportunity to realize his dream of being drafted. This arbitrary rule of forcing players to wait until a year after their graduation is now not only exploiting a small number of players, but is now affecting their assessments.  The NBA was concerned that players out of high school weren’t ready to play in the Association. Now, the rule may be affecting competitive balance; forcing teams at the top of the draft to assess a player’s meaningless season—a practice that could lead teams that need talent most to bypass a player that could sorely help them and their fan base.

Watching the scrutiny that Simmons has been under for a season, including the leaking of his academic performance, has only highlighted the need to change the NBA rule. The players that are talented enough shouldn’t be denied a right to earn what the market bears. And as more of this generation of basketball player who grew up watching Kobe (a player currently on an 82-game goodbye tour because of his celebrated greatness) have to endure a year of playing without pay, we will continue to see college basketball seasons approached with the anticipation of a prostate exam.

NBA Eastern Conference Contenders: A Look Around The League

LeBron's won a few EC Championships, is he on his way to another?

Cleveland Cavaliers

For the longest time it was Cleveland…and everyone else.  The winners of the Eastern Conference were penciled in by the time the year changed its last digit. That’s why pencils have erasers. The Toronto Raptors have gone on a run while the Cavs have dropped 3 of their last five games and appear to be searching for their mojo. Moreover, there are reports that Kyrie Irving is unhappy. With 23 games remaining, the Cavs have more questions surrounding them than at any other point in the season.

Toronto Raptors

I don’t believe in them. I know the team is closing the gap on the Cavs, but the team is built in the backcourt and neither Kyle Lowry nor DeMar DeRozan have proven to be efficient scorers in the postseason.  To his credit, Lowry is having the best season of his career, posting career highs in points, rebounds, field goal and 3 point percentage. For the Raptors to take the next step forward, they will need consistent play not only from their stars bu their frontcourt as well. Jonas Valanciunas and his post game help give the Raptors balance. Will the Raptos have enough to finally get over the hump?

Boston Celtics

Brad Stevens has quickly established himself as a guy that is going to be in the Coach of the Year discussion perennially. His after timeout offensive sets are both confounding and effective, and he’s arguably the most recognizable guy for this franchise.  The team is third in pace and defensive efficiency, while keeping their turnovers low (they have the 6^th lowest number of possessions that result in one). Isaiah Thomas has made a name for himself in Boston and is the best player on the surprising team.  In the end, stars win playoff series and this organization is still looking to barter its assets to acquire one. Still, the future looks bright for one of the stalwarts of the NBA…even if there is a good chance all these wins end in a first round exit.

Wade has another running mate, NC's own Hassan Whiteside (USATSI)

Miami Heat

This team is as intriguing as it is frustrating.  When Chris Bosh went down with a recurrence of blood clot issues it felt like the season was careening towards a disappointing end.  But as Hassan Whiteside has continued to improve, and Joe Johnson’s recent acquisition Miami looks to be surging at the right time. Add to that the fact that through some shrewd moves, they will avoid paying a repeater luxury tax (Pat Riley for Executive of the Year?) and the future looks as bright as the present.  Still, they will need Bosh if they plan on making a real run.  But the idea of a Miami Heat vs LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conference Finals matchup is incredibly exciting.

Atlanta Hawks

After winning 60 games last season, there was a hope that the Hawks were close to dethroning the Cavaliers.  Then they lost DeMarre Carroll and got off to an extremely rough start.  After deciding not to blow up the team at the trade deadline, the Hawks have continued to struggle. They’ve had four different three game losing streaks this season. That magic that they captured is gone. It seems like the right time to figure out the value for the pieces that they have, and come up with a plan for the future.

Steve Clifford has put himself in the COY runnings (USATSI)

Charlotte Hornets

What a delight to have the local team invited to the party.  Ranked 6^th, they are showing signs of consistency, easily dispatching the Suns and 76ers most recently.  Perhaps even more impressive, they have incorporated Al Jefferson back into the fold without missing a beat. His time as a part of he second unit gives the team’s offense a dynamic flair.  Last season the team was 24^th in 3 pointers attempted, this season they are 4^th.  The startling contrast is a testament to Head Coach Steve Clifford’s flexibility and understanding of his roster. This year will be a success if they make the playoffs and keep soon-to-be-free agent Nicolas Batum.

Indiana Pacers

This team has far exceeded my expectations, and that starts with their star Paul George. It’s been about 18 months since George injured his leg on that stanchion in Las Vegas.  Most expected this year to be one of rebuilding—for him and the franchise.  Instead, the team sits in the 7^th spot in the Conference and rookie Myles Turner has continued the team trend of going beyond what the pundits thought possible. Turner and Ian Mahinmi have provided the front court presence for a team that has used Monta Ellis as a pseudo point guard to make their occasionally docile offensive attack more dangerous.  They already have their superstar in place, a good free agency haul and the Pacers could be back among the best teams in the East.

Detroit Pistons

Speaking of pleasant surprises, the Pistons suddenly have two emerging stars.  Andre Drummond’s ascension, while sharp, has been expected.  Reggie Jackson’s rise has been more startling. After years of being Russell Westbrook’s understudy in Oklahoma City, Jackson wrestled the starting position away from an injured Brandon Jennings, making him expendable. Jennings departure meant Tobias Harris could come into the fold, which should improve their below average offensive efficiency. If they can avoid Cleveland in the first round, they will be a tough out for someone.

Wall must carry his team to the playoffs to be considered one of the sport's best PGs (USATSI)

Washington Wizards

I know the Wizards are currently 9^th and out of the playoff bracket if it started today—but it doesn’t start for another 20 games or so.  And this team is finally healthy (no team has lost more games to injury than the Wizards).  If I had to bet on a team with the majority of its talent in the backcourt, give me Washington over Toronto.  As long as they stay healthy, they’ll make the postseason. Imagine playing all season to get homecourt advantage and the prize is John Wall and a fresh Bradley Beal. Good luck.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are yet another case of talent taken asunder by injury woes. The Bulls have had injuries to nearly all off their key members.  Ironically, 35-year-old Pau Gasol has been the healthiest and most consistent member of the team.  With star player Jimmy Butler finally cleared to play, do the Bulls have enough time to run down the bottom of the playoff contenders?

NBA Instant Classic Recap

This guy. Credit: AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

This is more of an open love letter than a blog post.  Watching the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder engage in basketball combat was extraordinary.  There had been a lot of “showdowns” for the Warriors.  There was the Christmas Day Finals rematch with the Cleveland Cavaliers that had its moments, but was wasn’t much in doubt in its waning possessions. The rematch of that game sparked a series of double digit wins over playoff teams, including a 30 burger they hung on the San Antonio Spurs.

But on February 6^th the Thunder sauntered in to Oracle and gave the champs everything they could’ve wanted.  So the rematch tantalized fans’ thoughts with open court genius Russell Westbrook and the slick shooting of Kevin Durant vs the Machine driven by Steph Curry.

And it certainly didn’t disappoint.

OKC jumped on top of the Warriors immediately, going up by double digits in the first. The rest of the game saw the Thunder defending their lead against the ever-surging Warriors.  They lost their halftime lead in the third but Durant’s bombs from outside were enough for the Warriors relent and for OKC to take the lead. In fact, the Thunder had a four point lead with 15 secs left.  After a Klay Thompson layup, OKC had the ball and the lead with 12 seconds left. Then Durant went the full spectrum of the term “goat”. His turnover gave the Warriors a last gasp and they took full advantage.  A surprisingly smooth Andre Iguodola rewarded the fans with overtime basketball from the foul line.

The Thunder let the champs off the mat, and we were all treated to pitfalls of that decision. Russell Westbrook was valiant in his attempt to will his team (without Durant, who had been disqualified for fouls) to victory.  But after a stop on OKC’s penultimate possession, the Warriors had a live ball and around 7 seconds left. 

Now let me say this, I know no one will believe me, but I called the next sequence of events. Draymond Green snagged the rebound and calmly looked for Steph Curry. That’s right, not only does he get the ball and immediately look to outlet, he does so while also having the presence of mind to get it to their best player early in the possession. Curry then proceeds to receive the outlet and slow play it across the halfcourt line.  I sat in stupefied awe of his decision, manely because it was probably the percentage play.  Is Steph Curry better with his feet under him, in rhthym from a really long distance, or hurried into a contested three from a closer distance? I’d take the former over the latter any day—and so did Curry.

There will be plenty of time to laud and decry the performances of the participants, but for now I just want to bask in the glow of a shining example of why this is the world’s best sport.

NBA Metamorphosis: Changing of the Guards..and Wings...

Nicolas Batum is the type of midlevel star that can make a huge impact Credit:Kent Smith Getty Images

There are evolutions consistently in the NBA. For years the adage of “a good big man beating a good little man” dominated as sage advice for any executive with personnel power. Then Michael Jordan happened and Sam Bowie became a cautionary tale. As the Lakers won, the Kobe/Shaq feud escalated to an existential battle for the future of the league; with the wing player eventually wrestling the Most Important Position Award from the Bigs.  With the Celtics and then Heat forming not through the draft but through Free Agency/trades the age of the Super Team had begun.  Now with Golden State’s dominance, teams are looking to go small and shoot three at ever exorbitant rates.

The salary cap will increase around $20 million for next year. And will do the same the next NBA season after that. For many, this has filled their minds with what the top players stand to make.  Players like LeBron James have decided to shorten their contracts to maximize earning potential. But what about those teams that failed to land the big stars? Perhaps now would be a good time for yet another evolution of the sport—deeper teams with a less significant drop-off in talent between the starters and reserves.

An interesting thing happened during the last bit of labor strife in the NBA. In addition to the established adversarial relationship between management and labor, there was an additional friction amongst the owners. Essentially, the large market owners and small-market owners had a schism because small market teams were concerned about holding onto their stars and competing with Super Teams (eventually the problem was alleviated as luxury tax penalties increased and teams were able to hold onto their players with longer, more lucrative contracts).  But with approximately $40 million more to spend, the era of the Super Team may have received an injection of vitality.

So what are teams that have failed to show any real chance (either because of inability to pay steep luxury tax penalties or location) supposed to do? Perhaps they can begin to play a different game, a game defined by the totality of talent on the team, and not just that of the starting five. Instead of overpaying for a middling star, what if those teams invested in the bench? Imagine being able to legitimately play 10 quality players and wearing down the opposition which has the bulk of its salary (and talent) starting.

For the longest time in basketball, dynasties have ruled. The NBA’s history is written by star players and the franchises that hosted their greatness.  Perhaps as the tools available to teams increase, the product cultivated can remarkably change. Given that only 9 franchises have won a championship since 1980, parity has never been a realistic NBA quality. With less of a reliance on superstar players, perhaps smaller/less attractive markets like Charlotte have an opportunity to get in the jewelry game come this June.

NBA Trade Deadline: Look Around The League

Everyone is chasing Golden State, who had 3 representatives at this weekend's ASG (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Here's hoping you’re enjoying the All-Star game hangover, where the entertainment has been consumed and everyone is waiting for things to go back to a normal schedule. There was an exhilarating 3 point contest between (Splash) brothers, and one of the best dunk contests we’ve seen since Toronto had the best dunker in NBA history representing for their franchise. But amidst the jubilation and celebration there are quiet undertones of business transactions being proposed and (perhaps) completed.  Keep in mind that in addition to all the NBA players staying in Toronto this weekend, there were executives up there too.  With the trade deadline looming on February 18^th, any moves will need to be made quickly.  And with Golden State completely dominating the league, perhaps even the better teams will be looking to make a splash.  So this Look Around the League is dedicated to trade rumors. It’s like High School gossip, but without the messy lunch period squabble.

Howard could be moving teams...again. Photo:Doug Pensinger Getty Images Sport

Dwight Howard

The biggest name on the block (see what I did there?) is Dwight Howard.  The former defensive player of the year and MVP candidate is averaging his fewest points per game since his rookie season, and has had trouble staying healthy upon returning from injury. He’s still a beast on the boards and has nights where he looks like his athletically dominant self.  He has a player option (meaning he can extend the length of his current contract for what would be $23 million salary for next season), or opt out and hit the free agent market.  With his injuries, it is difficult to say exactly what the most prudent course of action is for the big man.  If he exercises the option, there is a real chance he would be maximizing his pay for that year and would audition for the following year with a better season.  But it is precisely because of his health issues that Howard may want the stability and peace of mind that comes with a long-term deal now, for what will more than likely be the final big contract of his career.

Potential Suitor(s): Miami Heat, Boston Celtics

Al Horford

The Hawks are just a game out of third place and yet there is a consistent buzz that the All-Star could be on the move.  He’s still a versatile scorer and quality defender playing at an awesome level.  His contract is up at the end of the year, so the usual complications with uncertainty about the future will arise for any team looking to add him, but any time a player of this caliber is a legitimate acquisition target, a discussion is merited.

Potential Suitor(s): Boston Celtics

The Wake Forest product, Jeff Teague, could be on the move. Photo: Getty Images

Jeff Teague

Teague is a slick, athletic point guard in a league that nearly demands that a championship team have talent at the position.  Moreover, Teague is better than any point guard that will be available in free agency this summer.  He is locked into making  8 million dollars next year, he’ll be a bargain next season once the increase in TV/internet money increases the salary cap.  His fate may depend on whether the team moves away from Horford. If Horford is moving, the team that won 60 games last year may be signaling a rebuild.

Potential Suitor(s):  Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic

Rudy Gay

He’s quietly averaging 18 and 7 on 50% eFG (2^nd highest of his career).  His contract gets more palatable as the salary cap increases. He’s got a stigma of improving a team only after he is dealt, but a seasoned scorer with big time talent could help some ball club go from good, to a contender.  It’s all an arms race with Golden State, anyway.

Selfishly, I don’t want Gay to leave. I LOVE this team. DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo just work on a real, and natural level. Their transition defense is awful and they turn the ball over way too much, but…I mean, come on it’s Rondo, Boogie, and Rudy Gay all under one roof! Of course I’m going to root for these guys, they’re damn near the Major League of the NBA. Please don’t break up this team, Vivek. Please.

Certain teams will be mentioned frequently on either side of trade talk; either because they have assets and want to dramatically improve their team right now, or because they have resigned themselves to the fact that this isn’t their year.  With that in mind, here is a list of teams that could be looking to make a deal come the deadline.

One or both of these guys may be gone by the EOB Thursday Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

Orlando Magic

There have been reports that Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris are available for the right price.  The right price, in Orlando’s parlance, is probably an established player that can shoot in the backcourt.  While Oladipo and Elfrid Paryton are capable players, the backcourt combo can struggle at times to space the floor . Moreover, the Magic have compiled young talent, but still lack any significant veteran presence. Eventually, this team wasn’t going to be able to take their entire young core with them to prominence, now is as good a time as any with their glutton of forwards to move one or two for the benefit of the franchise.

Houston

Dwight Howard has already been discussed, but when a head coach comes out and says that  his team is broken, there is a good chance the squad will look different before and after the trade deadline. This team that was a Western Conference Finals participant last season is now “not on the same page” and would miss the playoffs if they started today. Life came at Houston fast.

Isaiah Thomas will need help if the C's are to improve

Boston

A potential suitor comes in the form of the Boston Celtics, with lots of draft picks and David Lee’s salary to trade, they are loaded with attractive assets for any other big talent acquisition the young team would need to improve. Despite its history of excellence in the league, the franchise is having a difficult time with luring free agents to go there.   That realization led management to acquire assets for the possibility of bartering a star-studded future for a realistic attempt at present relevancy.

Cleveland

I didn’t include the Kevin Love rumors because I really have a hard time with the idea of them moving him.  They just gave him a lucrative deal, but with rumors of Horford and perhaps an outside chance of Blake Griffin (not included in-depth here because of the repeated strong, albeit conspicuous denials by Clippers management) being available, a comparable set of talent and skill seems to be at least sort of feasible. Even without a Love blockbuster deal, they have been linked in talks with the Kings’ Ben McLemore.  The  3^rd year player is posting career high shooting percentages while posting career low minutes numbers. He is an athletic wing player capable of knocking down the three, a valuable asset for any team that has eyes on beating the Warriors.

Atlanta

It’s amazing that a team that won 60 games last season may be thinking about a rebuild, but here they are.  There are rumors that everyone except Millsap is available.  They may realize that they have maxed out their potential with this roster and desire a completely different look.  Can a team a game out of third place already be giving up? Is this the new NBA where it’s championship or bust for half the league?

Denver

The Nuggets have been spinning their wheels for years.  They had a nice run awhile back following the Melo trade, but the pieces have stopped working in concert.  Forwards Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari have been mentioned around the league, but essentially anyone but rookie Emmanuel Mudiay and surprise play-maker Will Barton seem to be available.  Keep an eye on this squad as they look to figure out how not to be an annual “also ran” candidate.

The NBA trade deadline is like second Christmas to basketball fans.  Maybe your team will get the gift of an All-Star under the tree. There is even a website where youcan propose trades to really get yourself into a tizzy. It’s important to keep in mind now that the college basketball season is nearly over and the talent has started to thoroughly be assessed, that the draft picks being floated about as assets are more real in terms of who they may represent.  Before that was a nameless, faceless top 10 pick your team was sheepishly brandying about, now it may be Buddy Hield your team is giving up on. That makes a difference, and makes the potential trades all the more tantalizing.

GMs are People Too

Lakers currently have the best chance to have the 1st pick in the draft (USATSI)

Ben Simmons will likely be the first pick in the draft this June; he leads freshmen in most statistical categories and is top 5 in the entire SEC in points, rebounds and assists per game. But as the event draws closer, don’t be surprised if Brandon Ingram’s name gets floated as a potential 1^st selection. While Simmons is a multi-talented player, Ingram is a more polished offensive threat.  What’s more, his game more closely resembles current NBA forwards than Simmons’ game does (an announcer actually floated the idea of putting the 6’ 10 Simmons at the SG position).

The word “potential” gets brandied about during the NBA draft process. But upside has a way of making some prospects more attractive—the desperation that bad teams feel at the top of the draft could be likened to Last Call at a bar in this respect. It is easy, from the comfort of one’s home, to think that if a team is bad enough to be at the top of the draft that they should take a swing at the player that could change their franchise. 

What people fail to take into account is that there are real people at the helm of these organizations.  While Simmons may be the lever that turns a slumping NBA organization around, his lack of a jumper (or any real consistent way to score) could frighten people.  Moreover, there are no easy comparisons to successful players in the league.  Jack-of-all-trades players like Simmons can turn out to be masters of none…like fellow LSU player Anthony Randolph.

While some may look at taking the more known quality as “playing it safe” there are some things to keep in mind. One, “upside” is really just a hypothetical. It doesn’t take into account the drive of a player to appreciably improve (who would’ve picked Steph Curry to have gotten this much better?).  Upside also assumes that a player will one day be capable of performing a skill he has yet to display with any sort of consistency—in short, upside icould be nothing more than agreed upon fallacy. Secondly, with the logos, legacies, and history of these franchises, it is easy to forget that humans are the ones making these decisions.  People with mortgages and families decide who a team will select in the draft. Things like comfort and fear of public ridicule are real considerations. It could come down to what a GM would be comfortable with missing out on.

In the end, it is likely Simmons and Ingram will both have productive careers.  There are still a number of teams which might appear at the top of the draft; which means that all of them will have different needs to fit. So before you overreact at your favorite team’s draft decision, know that they are taking plenty into account...like their own futures. 

NBA Finals Outlook

It has been 6 years since these two met, James is hoping for a different outcome

I love how the Spurs and Heat each sat their starters in the two meetings this year.  It makes the Finals the first time that these teams will see each other at full strength this year.  There will (rightly) be a lot of talk of the “Big 3” and how they will play vs their respective matchups.  But the Finals consistently show us that there is always an impact player that isn’t a superstar.  In 2011, Tyson Chandler’s defense was vital in the Mavs win vs Miami.  The Heat had 25 points poured in by Mario Chalmers against the Thunder on the way to LeBron James’ first ring.

Chalmers needs to stay aggressive to make Tony Parker (who would’ve been a legitimate MVP candidate had it not been for LeBron and a late season injury) play on both sides of the court.  Miami has shown a propensity to be vulnerable to top-tier guards (do yourself a favor and look up the games Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook had on Miami’s way to their title last year); so far Parker has averaged 23 points and 7 assists, but they must keep him from having those insane games where he is both a scorer AND facilitator if they hope to repeat.

Looking further into the numbers, the thing that Miami struggles with is rebounding; in fact, they are dead last in rebounds per game. Two things account for their ranking, 1) they are a relatively small team 2) they have the highest effective Field Goal percentage in the league, and have fewer opportunities to rebound the ball offensively.  Indiana exploited their size advantage and beat the Heat on the boards by double digits several times; the Spurs, however, are ranked 29^th in the league in offensive rebounding and won’t hold the same disparity in this series that the Pacers did.

Where the Pacers lost the series was their inability to hold onto the ball, they were in the bottom 5 of the league in turnover ratio during the regular season.  The Spurs are much more judicious with the ball and are in the top half in turnover percentage in the league.  With their execution and All-Star point guard running the show, Miami will need to take advantage whenever they do get extra possessions on offense due to the Spurs negligence.

As important as the on-court collision of talents will be what the coaches do on the sidelines

Matchups:

Kawhi Leonard vs LeBron James

Leonard was taken in the 2011 NBA Draft out of San Diego St.  And while Leonard was heralded out of college, his maturation on the offensive end has improved drastically. While he is still working on expanding his game (namely creating his own shot off the dribble, and a post game), he came into the league with the ability to defend multiple positions due to his length and strength.  He usually guards the opposition’s best perimeter player, and is a dogged on-ball defender. He’ll have his hands full with James, who has had his best statistical season of his illustrious career, and has drastically improved his outside shot.  James is coming off a series where he averaged 29 points against NBA All-Defense 2^nd team member, Paul George.

Look for James to attack Leonard with off-ball motion.  Leonard is occasionally susceptible to ball watching. James must use hard cuts and screens to get the ball in the best position to score.  It will be important that he never loses sight of James—laughable given his freight-train like size—and that the Heat allow someone else to initiate the offense.

Manu Ginobili vs Dwyane Wade

It has been interesting watching both of these “superstars” over the course of the year (the lack of health for both players makes the presence of the quotation marks necessary).  Despite most of the press being devoted to dissecting Wade’s right knee bone bruise and his subsequent poor play, Ginobili has only eclipsed 20 points once this postseason.  Wade’s play was directly tied to the Heat’s success last series.  In the Heat’s four Eastern Conference finals wins, Wade averaged 17 pts, 6.3 rebs, 4.5 asts on 50.9 FG %.  In the team’s three losses, Wade averaged 13.3 pts, 3.7 rebounds, 4 asts on 35 FG%.  The scariest thing about Wade’s injury has been that it has stopped him from even attempting shots.  Even in the decisive game 7 vs the Pacers, it was more his aggressiveness on the boards and high activity that picked up Miami than his sharpshooting.

Both players have struggled offensively, and their injuries have slowed them on defense. Watching which player can get back to their top form will determine who wins this Finals.

Chris Bosh vs Tim Duncan

Bosh was awful against the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Alternating between guarding David West and Roy Hibbert exposed the lack of physicality that has long followed Bosh as a criticism.  While Duncan and Splitter are legitimate threats to score on offense, neither is the bruising interior player that will demolish Bosh on the boards or relegate him to the perimeter.

Tim Duncan is the man, and has been for years.  How many names of big men do you call before you get to him? Wilt, Kareem, Russell…and? That could very well be it.  This year he was 18 pts and 8 rebounds a game in his 17^th season.  Moreover with his high basketball IQ and length, he is an underrated defender (he laughably finished outside the top 5 for Defensive Player of the Year this year) that guards the post and pick and roll as well as any big man in the league.

Prediction:

Heat in 7.  I go with the best player in the series nearly every time in playoffs because stars win out in the end.  I am not sold on Wade’s health, but I feel the same about Ginobili’s.  Tony Parker is going to be a problem because regardless of how many quality defenders the Heat possess (and they do have a good number) Parker runs the high screen and roll better than any PG in the league.  Norris Cole did a great job on a similarly-quick Nate Robinson, but the Heat won’t be able to trap Parker as easily.  Bosh needs to play Duncan a helluva lot better than he did the West/Hibbert combo—and I expect that he will.

So Sportshop fans, who ya got?

What's Next for my Team? Everything NBA Draft

The NBA combine was last week, and the lottery was just about an hour ago.  While personal workouts for teams still will help determine where guys will ultimately be going, having a compiled list of players, rankings, and draft position may help the fan in you figure out who your team should acquire.  For all combine results go to Draft Express for results from drills.  If you’d like a game-by-game breakdown of their collegiate career, visit Sports Reference.

Lottery Draft Position:

1) Cleveland Cavaliers

2) Orlando Magic

3) Washington Wizards

4) Charlotte Bobcats

5) Phoenix Suns

6) New Orleans Pelicans

7) Sacramento Kings

8) Detroit Pistons

9) Minnesota T'wolves

10) Portland Trailblazers

11) Philadelphia 76ers

12) Oklahoma City Thunder

13) Dallas Mavericks

14) Utah Jazz

*=Denotes Foreign player who did not play college basketball in United States

Top Ranked Players

Cody Zeller (PF/C)

Mason Plumlee (C)

Victor Oladipo (SG)

Ben McLemore (SG)

Alex Len (C)

Trey Burke (PG)

Shabazz Muhammed (SF)

Otto Porter Jr. (SF)

Nerlens Noel (C)

Anthony Nennett (PF)

*Dario Saric (Forward)

ACC Players

Reggie Bullock (UNC)

Mason Plumlee (DU)

Seth Curry (DU)

Erik Green (VT)

CJ Leslie (NCSU)

Lorenzo Brown (NCSU)

Richard Howell (NCSU)

Kenny Kadji (UM)

BREAKDOWN BY POSITION

Point Guards

Michael Carter-Williams (SYR)

Shane Larkin (UM)

Lorenzo Brown (NCSU)

Trey Burke (MICH)

Pierre Jackson (BAY)

*Dennis Schroeder (GER)

Peyton Siva (LOU)

Erick Green (VT)

This is an incredibly point guard rich draft.  It’s the deepest position in the league and it only looks like it will get deeper.  The top tier talent in this draft that has been universally classified as weak, but several teams could find a starter or rotation contributor in this pool of players.  Looking at the Final four teams in the NBA Draft, the point guard position is clearly a valued one.  Having someone to run your offense and be an extension of the head coach is vital when the possessions drop and points are more difficult to come by. 

Here, there are a variety of players and styles to choose from.  Michael Carter-Williams is arguably the player with the most upside out of the group, he left Syracuse as a sophomore and has the length (6’ 5”) to pressure and bother opposing guards.  In the game vs Michigan in the NCAA tournament his opposing guard (National Player of the Year Trey Burke) to 1/8 shooting on what was clearly his worst game of the tournament. Shane Larkin (who tested out as the best athlete at the position at the combine) is a combination of explosiveness and guile.  He’s a deadeye shooter from the perimeter (40% from three) and has experience running a talented team.  Larkin kept a talented UM team happy, perhaps he could do the same with a litany of stars.  As a projected late 1^st round pick, would fit in perfectly with the LA Lakers.  He could learn under Steve Nash while playing heavy minutes to spell the vet over the course of the season.  Add to that his shooting ability to help space the floor for a couple of bigs, and Larkin would be a perfect fit for the team.

An intriguing prospect is combo guard Erick Green.  While he led the nation in points per game, he was also the leader in assists on the team.  Moreover, the Hokies were bottom-dwellers in the ACC and every defense keyed on him.  The fact that he was able to be successful with minimal talent surrounding him while being the focus of every opposition’s defense, speaks volumes about his ability.  Some scouts may be concerned that he isn’t a “traditional” point guard, but Green has insisted he scored simply because he was often the best option on an anemic offense.

My sleeper at this position is Lorenzo Brown. The point guard out of NC State is an intriguing prospect.  He has only played the position for two years, and is still learning.  But at 6’5” and superior court vision (Brown had 9 games of double digits assists), Brown can grow into the position.  Brown has shown a propensity for hard-nosed defense and, despite his average foot speed, could be a good perimeter defender immediately in the league with his size.

Shooting Guards

Ben McLemore (KU)

CJ McCullough (Lehigh)

Glen Rice Jr. (NBDL/GT)

Tim Hardaway Jr (Michigan)

Victor Oladipo (IU)

In the age of combo guards (Steph Curry, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook) CJ McCollum is arguably the best of the draft.  Before his foot injury sidelined him for the last half of the season, he was averaging nearly 24 points as the lead guard for Lehigh.  His personal workouts will be key, to see how healthy he is, and to see how he does against top competition.  Even with the success of Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard and Curry, teams may be hesitant to draft a guard from a smaller school that played lesser competition.

Glen Rice Jr. is an interesting case, specifically for his path to the draft.  After he finished at Georgia Tech, Rice went directly to the NBDL.  Because he is not yet 22, and had not gone through the draft process, Rice was eligible to be drafted.  Despite not getting much playing time early, Rice averaged 25 points per game in the finals of the Developmental League.  In a draft full of assets with question marks, Rice may be the closest thing to a sure bet.  He is already a professional, and the developmental league is considered a higher level of competition than college.  Rice is extremely athletic, and has shown the potential to be able to knock down his jump shot consistently.

The highest ceiling of this position belongs to either Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo.  Freshman sensation McLemore had brilliant games this season at KU, going for 30+ points three times.  He’s an athletic 6’4” guard who finishes extremely well around the basket and can knock down the outside shot.  McLemore struggled on the road, and had some memorably bad games in the NCAA tournament when the level of competition ratcheted up.  But as a freshman, a lack of consistency won’t dampen his draft position much.  He has been projected as high as a number 2 pick going to the Bobcats.  Another rumored player the Bobcats could be targeting is Oladipo.  When he first came to IU he was a raw player from basketball factory Dematha high school.  Since then he has developed a competent offensive game and even a solid jumpshot to accompany his smothering defense.  His high ceiling is due more to his intense work ethic, than natural ability.  He has been compared to Dwyane Wade because of his size 6’ 4” and explosive leaping ability, as well as his defense and shot blocking prowess.  Wade’s handle was better, but the fact that the junior has worked so hard to improve over his tenure at IU is a comforting thought to general managers moving forward.

My sleeper for this position (indeed, this draft) is Tim Hardaway Jr.  At 6’6” he has good size and no gaping holes in his game.  Despite his poor postseason play, Hardaway has shown the ability to shoot, defend, and finish at the cup.  He impressed in workouts with his ability to create his own shot, as well.  Moreover, being the son of an accomplished NBA, Hardaway is keenly aware of the work ethic necessary to be a pro.  Previously picked to be as late as a second round pick, Hardaway’s combine scores impressed NBA decision-makers and could have him moving up draft boards.  It will be interesting how attractive this “safe” pick will be as we near the draft in June.

Centers

Nerlens Noel (UK)

Kelly Olynyck (GU)

Alex Len (UMD)

Gorgui Dieng (UL)

Cody Zeller (IU)

Mason Plumlee (DU)

Despite what pundits have been claiming as the death of the big man, three of the final four teams competing for an NBA championship have an All-Star caliber Center roaming their lanes.  The position hasn’t stopped being important, it’s just less glamorous than it used to be.  Perhaps that’s why Zeller has tried to repackage himself as a stretch four, and Plumlee was classified as a forward by ESPN despite playing exclusively at the center position during his career at Duke.

Dieng (who was recovering from a foot injury and did not participate in any physical drills at the combine) and Noel are considered the best defensive prospects at the position because of their length and ability to get to opponents’ shots.  Dieng has showed the ability to set the pick and knock down the free throw line jumper.  Noel is a defensive stalwart, but is still fairly raw offensively.

[Sidenote: Noel is in a VERY interesting position in terms of this draft.  With his ACL tear, he won’t be ready to play until around Christmas.  With the robust talent that will reportedly be available in the 2014 draft, there have been rumors that some teams would select Noel knowing that he would not contribute much next year, allowing the team to get back into the lottery.  Essentially, the line of thinking is that by selecting him (perhaps with the first pick in the draft) a team would be able to get two lottery picks in the upcoming drafts and really make a difference for a struggling team.]

You’ll hear the words “upside” and “potential” about a million times before the draft is done.  Alex Len could be the personification of those ideals.  A talented big from UMD, he has shown a penchant for scoring in the post.  Physically, he still needs to grow into his body and will probably struggle/see limited minutes in his first season.  But he made some headlines when he proclaimed that in a decade he’d be the best player that came from this draft.

On the opposite end of the “potential” conversation is Olynyck.  He stayed all four years at Gonzaga, and developed his body and game.  While he is no fantastic athlete, he is extremely skilled.  Moreover, with the success of Marc Gasol, he could become a quality defender despite never averaging more than a block a game.  He may be the safest pick further down in the draft.

Forwards

Otto Porter Jr. (GU)

*Dario Saric (Croatia)

Shabazz Muhammad (UCLA)

*Giannis Antelokuonmpo (G

Anthony Bennett (UNLV)

Cj Leslie (NCSU)

*Rudy Gobert (France)

The forward position is the most talent shallow of all the positions.  As with so many things NBA draft, the impact that these prospects will have depends on fit.  Otto Porter Jr. was the best out of the crop, and was far and away Georgetown’s best option.  He was a Naismith Player of the Year candidate most of the year.  The most striking part about his game wasn't his ability to score, but his passing ability.  None of his numbers will jump out as jaw dropping (16 points per game, 7.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists) because of GU’s style of play.  But if he were put in a position to work off ball (perhaps with the Cleveland Cavaliers and their two ball-dominant guards), he could aid a team immediately, while covering up his own deficiencies in creating his own shot and getting to the rim.

Shabazz Muhammad came into his freshman year as one of the top picks in this year’s drafts.  One of the most heralded HS players in the last decade came into his sole college season out of shape (due to injury) and didn’t impress early.  While he finished the season well (with averages of 17 points per game and 5 rebounds) he never displayed his former dominance that some scouts had predicted when he was first going to UCLA.  Adding to the detractors' ammunition was his addition to his age. It turned out that Muhammad was older than scouts previously thought and will be 21 once the NBA season starts despite only playing one year of collegiate basketball.

Anthony Bennett shows a lot of promise at the Power Forward position.  He is capable of putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket.  He also played at the center position at times, and has the ability to score with his back to the basket.

Keep an eye on Kenny Kadji out of Miami.  He is older (25) but shot well from the position and looks to be NBA ready.  He isn't a great athlete, but shoots well outside for a big and played in an NBA-style offense with heavy pick and rolls.  Kadji is a projected late 1st/2nd round pick.  Given the right situation for a contender, he could thrive because of his ability to stretch the defense and allow his teammates to cut and drive to the basket. 

CJ Leslie has been the most mercurial talent in the country this year.  Leslie could be described as “Jack of all trades, master of none.”  He has a solid jumpshot, can create off the dribble, and (despite his wiry frame) has a good array of post moves. As multi-talented as he is, there were games where he seemed disinterested and completely withdrawn.  He reminds me a lot of Jeff Green when he came out of Georgetown; he, too, was prone to bouts of indecision and ineffectiveness early in his career. 

  

Here is a complete list of all of the participants of the NBA Combine. For a point of reference, 29 of the 30 top picks in last year’s NBA draft participated in the combine.

PLAYERS

·         Trevor Mbakwe (F-Minnesota)

·         Colton Iverson (F-Colorado St.)

·         Seth Curry (G-Duke)

·         Isaiah Canaan (G-Murray St.)

·         Jeff Withey (C-Kansas)

·         Kenny Kadji (F-Miami)

·         Mason Plumlee (F-Duke)

·         Ryan Kelly (F-Duke)

·         Glen Rice Jr (G-Georgia Tech)

·         Richard Howell (F-North Carolina St.)

·         Erick Green (G-Va. Tech)

·         Brandon Paul (G-Illinois)

·         Peyton Siva (G-Louisville)

·         Jackie Carmichael (F-Illinois St.)

·         Brandon Davies (F-Brigham Young)

·         Solomon Hill (F-Arizona)

·         Mike Muscala (F-Bucknell)

·         Erik Murphy (F-Florida)

·         Nate Wolters (G-S. Dakota St)

·         Kelly Olynyk (F-Gonzaga)

·         Carrick Felix (G-Ariz. St)

·         Allen Crabbe (G-California)

·         Andre Roberson (F-Colorado)

·         Ray McCallum (G-Detroit)

·         Victor Oladipo (G-Indiana)

·         Tim Hardaway Jr (G-Michigan)

·         Phil Pressey (G-Missouri)

·         Lorenzo Brown (G-North Carolina St.)

·         C.J. Leslie (F-North Carolina St.)

·         Tony Snell (G-New Mexico)

·         Reggie Bullock (G-North Carolina)

·         Deshaun Thomas (F-Ohio St.)

·         Jamaal Franklin (G-San Diego St.)

·         Gorgui Dieng (C-Louisville)

·         Shane Larkin (G-Miami)

·         Dewayne Dedmon (F-Southern California)

·         B.J. Young (G-Arkansas)

·         Pierre Jackson (G-Baylor)

·         Otto Porter (F-Georgetown)

·         Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (G-Georgia)

·         Cody Zeller (F-Indiana)

·         Ben McLemore (G-Kansas)

·         James Ennis (G-Long Beach)

·         Alex Len (C-Maryland)

·         Adonis Thomas (F-Memphis)

·         Trey Burke (G-Michigan)

·         Michael Carter-Williams (G-Syracuse)

·         Myck Kabongo (G-Texas)

·         Steven Adams (C-Pittsburgh)

·         Ricky Ledo (G-Providence)

·         Nerlens Noel (F-Kentucky)

·         Archie Goodwin (G-Kentucky)

·         Grant Jerrett (F-Arizona)

Shabazz Muhammad (G-UCLA)