Fait Accompli: Ben Simmons' Loss Season

Simmons Has faced his share of criticism over the past year (Getty Images)

While reading the stellar Jonathan Givony of Draftexpress (a must read for tournament time and NBA draft junkies such as myself) I came across an article detailing a myriad of reasons why Ben Simmons could/should belosing his spot as the inevitable first pick in this June’s NBA draft. Specifically, Givony outlined four reasons that a change at the top of the draft was warranted; his competitiveness, hollow box scores, poor defense, and character issues all stemmed back to a perceived general apathetic approach to the game. Givony, as usual, seemed to hit the nail on the head.  I watched several LSU games and Simmons (at times) appeared to be stoically resigned to the LSU casually piled up over the course of their oddly forgettable season. What I believe Givony missed was the real-life context that may have been the driving factor for the perceived indifference Simmons displayed.

Ben Simmons was born July 20^th, 1996 less than a month after Kobe Bryant was selected 13^th by the Charlotte Hornets. The NBA officially adopted what has been deemed the “One and Done” rule as a part of the 2005 collective bargaining agreement.  So for the duration of Simmons’ life, he has seen Kobe Bryant and LeBron James dominating the NBA.  There was no question as to whether a player straight out of high school could play at an elite level.  So perhaps he attacked the prospect of one year of college basketball much in the same way that many attacked their first jobs; as a necessary evil that was a means to an end. With the exception that that job was required…and unpaid.  Add that to the fact that the team he selected based on a familial relationship was devoid of sufficient talent, and this season simply petered out to a whimpering conclusion.

This summer, Simmons will finally get an opportunity to realize his dream of being drafted. This arbitrary rule of forcing players to wait until a year after their graduation is now not only exploiting a small number of players, but is now affecting their assessments.  The NBA was concerned that players out of high school weren’t ready to play in the Association. Now, the rule may be affecting competitive balance; forcing teams at the top of the draft to assess a player’s meaningless season—a practice that could lead teams that need talent most to bypass a player that could sorely help them and their fan base.

Watching the scrutiny that Simmons has been under for a season, including the leaking of his academic performance, has only highlighted the need to change the NBA rule. The players that are talented enough shouldn’t be denied a right to earn what the market bears. And as more of this generation of basketball player who grew up watching Kobe (a player currently on an 82-game goodbye tour because of his celebrated greatness) have to endure a year of playing without pay, we will continue to see college basketball seasons approached with the anticipation of a prostate exam.

GMs are People Too

Lakers currently have the best chance to have the 1st pick in the draft (USATSI)

Ben Simmons will likely be the first pick in the draft this June; he leads freshmen in most statistical categories and is top 5 in the entire SEC in points, rebounds and assists per game. But as the event draws closer, don’t be surprised if Brandon Ingram’s name gets floated as a potential 1^st selection. While Simmons is a multi-talented player, Ingram is a more polished offensive threat.  What’s more, his game more closely resembles current NBA forwards than Simmons’ game does (an announcer actually floated the idea of putting the 6’ 10 Simmons at the SG position).

The word “potential” gets brandied about during the NBA draft process. But upside has a way of making some prospects more attractive—the desperation that bad teams feel at the top of the draft could be likened to Last Call at a bar in this respect. It is easy, from the comfort of one’s home, to think that if a team is bad enough to be at the top of the draft that they should take a swing at the player that could change their franchise. 

What people fail to take into account is that there are real people at the helm of these organizations.  While Simmons may be the lever that turns a slumping NBA organization around, his lack of a jumper (or any real consistent way to score) could frighten people.  Moreover, there are no easy comparisons to successful players in the league.  Jack-of-all-trades players like Simmons can turn out to be masters of none…like fellow LSU player Anthony Randolph.

While some may look at taking the more known quality as “playing it safe” there are some things to keep in mind. One, “upside” is really just a hypothetical. It doesn’t take into account the drive of a player to appreciably improve (who would’ve picked Steph Curry to have gotten this much better?).  Upside also assumes that a player will one day be capable of performing a skill he has yet to display with any sort of consistency—in short, upside icould be nothing more than agreed upon fallacy. Secondly, with the logos, legacies, and history of these franchises, it is easy to forget that humans are the ones making these decisions.  People with mortgages and families decide who a team will select in the draft. Things like comfort and fear of public ridicule are real considerations. It could come down to what a GM would be comfortable with missing out on.

In the end, it is likely Simmons and Ingram will both have productive careers.  There are still a number of teams which might appear at the top of the draft; which means that all of them will have different needs to fit. So before you overreact at your favorite team’s draft decision, know that they are taking plenty into account...like their own futures. 

What's Next for my Team? Everything NBA Draft

The NBA combine was last week, and the lottery was just about an hour ago.  While personal workouts for teams still will help determine where guys will ultimately be going, having a compiled list of players, rankings, and draft position may help the fan in you figure out who your team should acquire.  For all combine results go to Draft Express for results from drills.  If you’d like a game-by-game breakdown of their collegiate career, visit Sports Reference.

Lottery Draft Position:

1) Cleveland Cavaliers

2) Orlando Magic

3) Washington Wizards

4) Charlotte Bobcats

5) Phoenix Suns

6) New Orleans Pelicans

7) Sacramento Kings

8) Detroit Pistons

9) Minnesota T'wolves

10) Portland Trailblazers

11) Philadelphia 76ers

12) Oklahoma City Thunder

13) Dallas Mavericks

14) Utah Jazz

*=Denotes Foreign player who did not play college basketball in United States

Top Ranked Players

Cody Zeller (PF/C)

Mason Plumlee (C)

Victor Oladipo (SG)

Ben McLemore (SG)

Alex Len (C)

Trey Burke (PG)

Shabazz Muhammed (SF)

Otto Porter Jr. (SF)

Nerlens Noel (C)

Anthony Nennett (PF)

*Dario Saric (Forward)

ACC Players

Reggie Bullock (UNC)

Mason Plumlee (DU)

Seth Curry (DU)

Erik Green (VT)

CJ Leslie (NCSU)

Lorenzo Brown (NCSU)

Richard Howell (NCSU)

Kenny Kadji (UM)

BREAKDOWN BY POSITION

Point Guards

Michael Carter-Williams (SYR)

Shane Larkin (UM)

Lorenzo Brown (NCSU)

Trey Burke (MICH)

Pierre Jackson (BAY)

*Dennis Schroeder (GER)

Peyton Siva (LOU)

Erick Green (VT)

This is an incredibly point guard rich draft.  It’s the deepest position in the league and it only looks like it will get deeper.  The top tier talent in this draft that has been universally classified as weak, but several teams could find a starter or rotation contributor in this pool of players.  Looking at the Final four teams in the NBA Draft, the point guard position is clearly a valued one.  Having someone to run your offense and be an extension of the head coach is vital when the possessions drop and points are more difficult to come by. 

Here, there are a variety of players and styles to choose from.  Michael Carter-Williams is arguably the player with the most upside out of the group, he left Syracuse as a sophomore and has the length (6’ 5”) to pressure and bother opposing guards.  In the game vs Michigan in the NCAA tournament his opposing guard (National Player of the Year Trey Burke) to 1/8 shooting on what was clearly his worst game of the tournament. Shane Larkin (who tested out as the best athlete at the position at the combine) is a combination of explosiveness and guile.  He’s a deadeye shooter from the perimeter (40% from three) and has experience running a talented team.  Larkin kept a talented UM team happy, perhaps he could do the same with a litany of stars.  As a projected late 1^st round pick, would fit in perfectly with the LA Lakers.  He could learn under Steve Nash while playing heavy minutes to spell the vet over the course of the season.  Add to that his shooting ability to help space the floor for a couple of bigs, and Larkin would be a perfect fit for the team.

An intriguing prospect is combo guard Erick Green.  While he led the nation in points per game, he was also the leader in assists on the team.  Moreover, the Hokies were bottom-dwellers in the ACC and every defense keyed on him.  The fact that he was able to be successful with minimal talent surrounding him while being the focus of every opposition’s defense, speaks volumes about his ability.  Some scouts may be concerned that he isn’t a “traditional” point guard, but Green has insisted he scored simply because he was often the best option on an anemic offense.

My sleeper at this position is Lorenzo Brown. The point guard out of NC State is an intriguing prospect.  He has only played the position for two years, and is still learning.  But at 6’5” and superior court vision (Brown had 9 games of double digits assists), Brown can grow into the position.  Brown has shown a propensity for hard-nosed defense and, despite his average foot speed, could be a good perimeter defender immediately in the league with his size.

Shooting Guards

Ben McLemore (KU)

CJ McCullough (Lehigh)

Glen Rice Jr. (NBDL/GT)

Tim Hardaway Jr (Michigan)

Victor Oladipo (IU)

In the age of combo guards (Steph Curry, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook) CJ McCollum is arguably the best of the draft.  Before his foot injury sidelined him for the last half of the season, he was averaging nearly 24 points as the lead guard for Lehigh.  His personal workouts will be key, to see how healthy he is, and to see how he does against top competition.  Even with the success of Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard and Curry, teams may be hesitant to draft a guard from a smaller school that played lesser competition.

Glen Rice Jr. is an interesting case, specifically for his path to the draft.  After he finished at Georgia Tech, Rice went directly to the NBDL.  Because he is not yet 22, and had not gone through the draft process, Rice was eligible to be drafted.  Despite not getting much playing time early, Rice averaged 25 points per game in the finals of the Developmental League.  In a draft full of assets with question marks, Rice may be the closest thing to a sure bet.  He is already a professional, and the developmental league is considered a higher level of competition than college.  Rice is extremely athletic, and has shown the potential to be able to knock down his jump shot consistently.

The highest ceiling of this position belongs to either Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo.  Freshman sensation McLemore had brilliant games this season at KU, going for 30+ points three times.  He’s an athletic 6’4” guard who finishes extremely well around the basket and can knock down the outside shot.  McLemore struggled on the road, and had some memorably bad games in the NCAA tournament when the level of competition ratcheted up.  But as a freshman, a lack of consistency won’t dampen his draft position much.  He has been projected as high as a number 2 pick going to the Bobcats.  Another rumored player the Bobcats could be targeting is Oladipo.  When he first came to IU he was a raw player from basketball factory Dematha high school.  Since then he has developed a competent offensive game and even a solid jumpshot to accompany his smothering defense.  His high ceiling is due more to his intense work ethic, than natural ability.  He has been compared to Dwyane Wade because of his size 6’ 4” and explosive leaping ability, as well as his defense and shot blocking prowess.  Wade’s handle was better, but the fact that the junior has worked so hard to improve over his tenure at IU is a comforting thought to general managers moving forward.

My sleeper for this position (indeed, this draft) is Tim Hardaway Jr.  At 6’6” he has good size and no gaping holes in his game.  Despite his poor postseason play, Hardaway has shown the ability to shoot, defend, and finish at the cup.  He impressed in workouts with his ability to create his own shot, as well.  Moreover, being the son of an accomplished NBA, Hardaway is keenly aware of the work ethic necessary to be a pro.  Previously picked to be as late as a second round pick, Hardaway’s combine scores impressed NBA decision-makers and could have him moving up draft boards.  It will be interesting how attractive this “safe” pick will be as we near the draft in June.

Centers

Nerlens Noel (UK)

Kelly Olynyck (GU)

Alex Len (UMD)

Gorgui Dieng (UL)

Cody Zeller (IU)

Mason Plumlee (DU)

Despite what pundits have been claiming as the death of the big man, three of the final four teams competing for an NBA championship have an All-Star caliber Center roaming their lanes.  The position hasn’t stopped being important, it’s just less glamorous than it used to be.  Perhaps that’s why Zeller has tried to repackage himself as a stretch four, and Plumlee was classified as a forward by ESPN despite playing exclusively at the center position during his career at Duke.

Dieng (who was recovering from a foot injury and did not participate in any physical drills at the combine) and Noel are considered the best defensive prospects at the position because of their length and ability to get to opponents’ shots.  Dieng has showed the ability to set the pick and knock down the free throw line jumper.  Noel is a defensive stalwart, but is still fairly raw offensively.

[Sidenote: Noel is in a VERY interesting position in terms of this draft.  With his ACL tear, he won’t be ready to play until around Christmas.  With the robust talent that will reportedly be available in the 2014 draft, there have been rumors that some teams would select Noel knowing that he would not contribute much next year, allowing the team to get back into the lottery.  Essentially, the line of thinking is that by selecting him (perhaps with the first pick in the draft) a team would be able to get two lottery picks in the upcoming drafts and really make a difference for a struggling team.]

You’ll hear the words “upside” and “potential” about a million times before the draft is done.  Alex Len could be the personification of those ideals.  A talented big from UMD, he has shown a penchant for scoring in the post.  Physically, he still needs to grow into his body and will probably struggle/see limited minutes in his first season.  But he made some headlines when he proclaimed that in a decade he’d be the best player that came from this draft.

On the opposite end of the “potential” conversation is Olynyck.  He stayed all four years at Gonzaga, and developed his body and game.  While he is no fantastic athlete, he is extremely skilled.  Moreover, with the success of Marc Gasol, he could become a quality defender despite never averaging more than a block a game.  He may be the safest pick further down in the draft.

Forwards

Otto Porter Jr. (GU)

*Dario Saric (Croatia)

Shabazz Muhammad (UCLA)

*Giannis Antelokuonmpo (G

Anthony Bennett (UNLV)

Cj Leslie (NCSU)

*Rudy Gobert (France)

The forward position is the most talent shallow of all the positions.  As with so many things NBA draft, the impact that these prospects will have depends on fit.  Otto Porter Jr. was the best out of the crop, and was far and away Georgetown’s best option.  He was a Naismith Player of the Year candidate most of the year.  The most striking part about his game wasn't his ability to score, but his passing ability.  None of his numbers will jump out as jaw dropping (16 points per game, 7.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists) because of GU’s style of play.  But if he were put in a position to work off ball (perhaps with the Cleveland Cavaliers and their two ball-dominant guards), he could aid a team immediately, while covering up his own deficiencies in creating his own shot and getting to the rim.

Shabazz Muhammad came into his freshman year as one of the top picks in this year’s drafts.  One of the most heralded HS players in the last decade came into his sole college season out of shape (due to injury) and didn’t impress early.  While he finished the season well (with averages of 17 points per game and 5 rebounds) he never displayed his former dominance that some scouts had predicted when he was first going to UCLA.  Adding to the detractors' ammunition was his addition to his age. It turned out that Muhammad was older than scouts previously thought and will be 21 once the NBA season starts despite only playing one year of collegiate basketball.

Anthony Bennett shows a lot of promise at the Power Forward position.  He is capable of putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket.  He also played at the center position at times, and has the ability to score with his back to the basket.

Keep an eye on Kenny Kadji out of Miami.  He is older (25) but shot well from the position and looks to be NBA ready.  He isn't a great athlete, but shoots well outside for a big and played in an NBA-style offense with heavy pick and rolls.  Kadji is a projected late 1st/2nd round pick.  Given the right situation for a contender, he could thrive because of his ability to stretch the defense and allow his teammates to cut and drive to the basket. 

CJ Leslie has been the most mercurial talent in the country this year.  Leslie could be described as “Jack of all trades, master of none.”  He has a solid jumpshot, can create off the dribble, and (despite his wiry frame) has a good array of post moves. As multi-talented as he is, there were games where he seemed disinterested and completely withdrawn.  He reminds me a lot of Jeff Green when he came out of Georgetown; he, too, was prone to bouts of indecision and ineffectiveness early in his career. 

  

Here is a complete list of all of the participants of the NBA Combine. For a point of reference, 29 of the 30 top picks in last year’s NBA draft participated in the combine.

PLAYERS

·         Trevor Mbakwe (F-Minnesota)

·         Colton Iverson (F-Colorado St.)

·         Seth Curry (G-Duke)

·         Isaiah Canaan (G-Murray St.)

·         Jeff Withey (C-Kansas)

·         Kenny Kadji (F-Miami)

·         Mason Plumlee (F-Duke)

·         Ryan Kelly (F-Duke)

·         Glen Rice Jr (G-Georgia Tech)

·         Richard Howell (F-North Carolina St.)

·         Erick Green (G-Va. Tech)

·         Brandon Paul (G-Illinois)

·         Peyton Siva (G-Louisville)

·         Jackie Carmichael (F-Illinois St.)

·         Brandon Davies (F-Brigham Young)

·         Solomon Hill (F-Arizona)

·         Mike Muscala (F-Bucknell)

·         Erik Murphy (F-Florida)

·         Nate Wolters (G-S. Dakota St)

·         Kelly Olynyk (F-Gonzaga)

·         Carrick Felix (G-Ariz. St)

·         Allen Crabbe (G-California)

·         Andre Roberson (F-Colorado)

·         Ray McCallum (G-Detroit)

·         Victor Oladipo (G-Indiana)

·         Tim Hardaway Jr (G-Michigan)

·         Phil Pressey (G-Missouri)

·         Lorenzo Brown (G-North Carolina St.)

·         C.J. Leslie (F-North Carolina St.)

·         Tony Snell (G-New Mexico)

·         Reggie Bullock (G-North Carolina)

·         Deshaun Thomas (F-Ohio St.)

·         Jamaal Franklin (G-San Diego St.)

·         Gorgui Dieng (C-Louisville)

·         Shane Larkin (G-Miami)

·         Dewayne Dedmon (F-Southern California)

·         B.J. Young (G-Arkansas)

·         Pierre Jackson (G-Baylor)

·         Otto Porter (F-Georgetown)

·         Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (G-Georgia)

·         Cody Zeller (F-Indiana)

·         Ben McLemore (G-Kansas)

·         James Ennis (G-Long Beach)

·         Alex Len (C-Maryland)

·         Adonis Thomas (F-Memphis)

·         Trey Burke (G-Michigan)

·         Michael Carter-Williams (G-Syracuse)

·         Myck Kabongo (G-Texas)

·         Steven Adams (C-Pittsburgh)

·         Ricky Ledo (G-Providence)

·         Nerlens Noel (F-Kentucky)

·         Archie Goodwin (G-Kentucky)

·         Grant Jerrett (F-Arizona)

Shabazz Muhammad (G-UCLA)