Warrior Assassins: Who can topple Golden State

It has been smooth sailing for this group all season (Noah Graham/Getty Images)

The Golden State Warriors have won 66 of the 73 games it has played thus far, that’s a win percentage of just over 90. If they can win seven out of their last nine regular season games, they would eclipse the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls’ record win total of 72.  There is a large part of me that hopes that they don’t break the record.  Michael Jordan’s place in history as the consensus best player in history will change as the calendars do.  Even if it isn’t LeBron or Steph that supplants him, there will come along another gunslinger to topple MJ off his throne.

But before this team is hoisted into the Valhalla of All-time great squads, they will have to complete the season and win the championship.  Let’s take a look at the teams that could throw a damper on their coronation.

Blake Griffin's mistake has changed the dynamics of this team (Getty Images)

Los Angeles Clippers

This team may not have appeared in this group if Blake Griffin had taken much longer to get back, but any time an All-NBA caliber player becomes available on a team things can change. They have been good without Red Bull (he’s a redhead and has ups for days, the nickname fits too well not to be used, even if he weren’t already a paid endorser of the product) but when the possessions dwindle and teams know tendencies, stars dictate success. With the exception of Jeff Green and the ghost of Paul Pierce, this team is essentially the same as it has always been.  Perhaps Griffin will give them the jolt needed to challenge the Warriors.

J.J. Redick is having his best season of his career; it’s he, and not any member of the Warriors. that leads the Association in 3 point FG%. Chris Paul is having another fantastic season with averages of nearly 20 points and 10 assists a game.  They aren’t the Splash brothers, but the Clippers have star power to combat the Warriors’ backcourt. How will this team (specifically DeAndre Jordan) respond to the addition of a player the caliber of Griffin being re-introduced this late in the season after months without him?

Check the hair. These guys have been doing this for awhile.

San Antonio Spurs

You could set your watch by the Spurs in the playoffs.  They are as bloodless and ruthless as any Skynet disciple. This iteration of San Antonio is a throwback. The Spurs are the oldest team in the league, employing the two players furthest removed from their births (Tim Duncan and Andre Miller).  But moreso than their actual age, their style of play is one that would make Oscar Robertson blush. 

They are 25^th in the league in 3 pointers attempted. In a time where teams are consistently going small, they start two seven footers. And while isolations dominate most offenses, the Spurs are third in the league in assists. Plus, the team that is 61-12 and undefeated at home has added Kevin Martin with Manu Ginobili finally back after his extremely painful injury. Perhaps most salient to the idea that they could beat the Warriors this postseason is the fact that they actually beat the Golden State a little over a week ago.  One old head just won a Super Bowl, why can’t an NBA team full of them follow suit?

Triple doubles and prolific scoring. Tell me these two can play together forever.

Oklahoma City

Unlike the Spurs that win with below-the-radar personalities and talent, the Thunder is the loud and gifted group that is perhaps watching its window close. If Kevin Durant leaves after the season, it will mean that years of KD and Westbrook netted an NBA Finals appearance and one underachieving label. In the Championship or Bust times that currently dominate the NBA, having two guys more talented than any duo in the league without a ring would leave an unseemly taste in the mouths of their fans.

The team is deeper than they were under Scott Brooks.  Head coach Billy Donovan has flexibility in the frontcourt with Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, KD, and Serge Ibaka all capable of playing either the power forward or center position (or both).  Moreover, Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow are capable of reducing the scoring burden of the stars—and Randy Foye alleviates some of the play-making duties from the tireless Westbrook. Perhaps because of all of the new talent, it has taken most of the year to hit their stride, but a current eight game winning streak certainly buoys the chances of a postseason run. The team is as laden with talent as any other squad, can Donovan take them to glory in his first year?

While not a member of the Big 3, Smith will be instrumental in a Cavs run (Getty Images)

Cleveland Cavaliers

There’s been a lot written about what the Cavs aren’t. And with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love up and down in their production (particularly together) there is legitimate concern over Cleveland’s “Big 3”. But throughout all the subtweeting, disappointing play, and peculiar losses (this team just dropped a befuddling game to the listless Brooklyn Nets) they’re cruising to back-to-back number 1 seeds in the Eastern Conference. It’s easy to nitpick the Cavs for what they aren’t—namely, the Warriors. But what are they?

The Cavs are a team that is top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (an accomplishment shared only by the Spurs and Warriors).  While they aren’t great in one area, they are significantly above average in a number of areas; namely, they are top ten in offensive rebounding percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, and effective field goal percentage. Plus, they have one of the greatest players to ever play the game on their team. Moreover, unlike the rest of these poor slobs on this list, if they meet the GSW in the playoffs, they are guaranteed to play them after having run the gauntlet of the Western Conference playoff contenders. Keep in mind, the Cavs don’t have to beat all these other teams, only the Western Conference title winner.  Perhaps after beating a couple of these teams (and having sprinted through the season to win a record-setting number of games), the Warriors will be at their most vulnerable.

Ultimately the Warriors will be the odds on favorite to win the title and take their place in the pantheon of great NBA teams.  But make no mistake, the Association will fight, scratch, and claw to keep the Warriors relegated to an interesting footnote in basketball history.

NBA Finals Outlook

It has been 6 years since these two met, James is hoping for a different outcome

I love how the Spurs and Heat each sat their starters in the two meetings this year.  It makes the Finals the first time that these teams will see each other at full strength this year.  There will (rightly) be a lot of talk of the “Big 3” and how they will play vs their respective matchups.  But the Finals consistently show us that there is always an impact player that isn’t a superstar.  In 2011, Tyson Chandler’s defense was vital in the Mavs win vs Miami.  The Heat had 25 points poured in by Mario Chalmers against the Thunder on the way to LeBron James’ first ring.

Chalmers needs to stay aggressive to make Tony Parker (who would’ve been a legitimate MVP candidate had it not been for LeBron and a late season injury) play on both sides of the court.  Miami has shown a propensity to be vulnerable to top-tier guards (do yourself a favor and look up the games Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook had on Miami’s way to their title last year); so far Parker has averaged 23 points and 7 assists, but they must keep him from having those insane games where he is both a scorer AND facilitator if they hope to repeat.

Looking further into the numbers, the thing that Miami struggles with is rebounding; in fact, they are dead last in rebounds per game. Two things account for their ranking, 1) they are a relatively small team 2) they have the highest effective Field Goal percentage in the league, and have fewer opportunities to rebound the ball offensively.  Indiana exploited their size advantage and beat the Heat on the boards by double digits several times; the Spurs, however, are ranked 29^th in the league in offensive rebounding and won’t hold the same disparity in this series that the Pacers did.

Where the Pacers lost the series was their inability to hold onto the ball, they were in the bottom 5 of the league in turnover ratio during the regular season.  The Spurs are much more judicious with the ball and are in the top half in turnover percentage in the league.  With their execution and All-Star point guard running the show, Miami will need to take advantage whenever they do get extra possessions on offense due to the Spurs negligence.

As important as the on-court collision of talents will be what the coaches do on the sidelines

Matchups:

Kawhi Leonard vs LeBron James

Leonard was taken in the 2011 NBA Draft out of San Diego St.  And while Leonard was heralded out of college, his maturation on the offensive end has improved drastically. While he is still working on expanding his game (namely creating his own shot off the dribble, and a post game), he came into the league with the ability to defend multiple positions due to his length and strength.  He usually guards the opposition’s best perimeter player, and is a dogged on-ball defender. He’ll have his hands full with James, who has had his best statistical season of his illustrious career, and has drastically improved his outside shot.  James is coming off a series where he averaged 29 points against NBA All-Defense 2^nd team member, Paul George.

Look for James to attack Leonard with off-ball motion.  Leonard is occasionally susceptible to ball watching. James must use hard cuts and screens to get the ball in the best position to score.  It will be important that he never loses sight of James—laughable given his freight-train like size—and that the Heat allow someone else to initiate the offense.

Manu Ginobili vs Dwyane Wade

It has been interesting watching both of these “superstars” over the course of the year (the lack of health for both players makes the presence of the quotation marks necessary).  Despite most of the press being devoted to dissecting Wade’s right knee bone bruise and his subsequent poor play, Ginobili has only eclipsed 20 points once this postseason.  Wade’s play was directly tied to the Heat’s success last series.  In the Heat’s four Eastern Conference finals wins, Wade averaged 17 pts, 6.3 rebs, 4.5 asts on 50.9 FG %.  In the team’s three losses, Wade averaged 13.3 pts, 3.7 rebounds, 4 asts on 35 FG%.  The scariest thing about Wade’s injury has been that it has stopped him from even attempting shots.  Even in the decisive game 7 vs the Pacers, it was more his aggressiveness on the boards and high activity that picked up Miami than his sharpshooting.

Both players have struggled offensively, and their injuries have slowed them on defense. Watching which player can get back to their top form will determine who wins this Finals.

Chris Bosh vs Tim Duncan

Bosh was awful against the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Alternating between guarding David West and Roy Hibbert exposed the lack of physicality that has long followed Bosh as a criticism.  While Duncan and Splitter are legitimate threats to score on offense, neither is the bruising interior player that will demolish Bosh on the boards or relegate him to the perimeter.

Tim Duncan is the man, and has been for years.  How many names of big men do you call before you get to him? Wilt, Kareem, Russell…and? That could very well be it.  This year he was 18 pts and 8 rebounds a game in his 17^th season.  Moreover with his high basketball IQ and length, he is an underrated defender (he laughably finished outside the top 5 for Defensive Player of the Year this year) that guards the post and pick and roll as well as any big man in the league.

Prediction:

Heat in 7.  I go with the best player in the series nearly every time in playoffs because stars win out in the end.  I am not sold on Wade’s health, but I feel the same about Ginobili’s.  Tony Parker is going to be a problem because regardless of how many quality defenders the Heat possess (and they do have a good number) Parker runs the high screen and roll better than any PG in the league.  Norris Cole did a great job on a similarly-quick Nate Robinson, but the Heat won’t be able to trap Parker as easily.  Bosh needs to play Duncan a helluva lot better than he did the West/Hibbert combo—and I expect that he will.

So Sportshop fans, who ya got?

Jarrett Jack Crunches the Numbers

Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes carried the Warriors when they needed it most

Analyzing a team is a combination of art and science.  Despite my love of statistical analysis, I use them to support my thesis.  Metrics should mostly be used to research an existing idea that is ascertained from watching the game, not as the genesis for an idea for what ails a team.  No one embodies that idea more than Jarrett Jack.

The Warriors evened the series yesterday at 2 apiece as the Warriors vs Spurs series went into overtime for the second time on Sunday.  With Steph Curry ailing on a weak ankle and Klay Thompson struggling, the Warriors needed more perimeter offensive help early.  Along with Harrison Barnes’ contribution, Jack kept the Warriors in the game in the first half.  Despite being down by 10 points at the half, without his contribution the Warriors may have given the Spurs a lead that was insurmountable heading into the back stretch of the game.

While Curry had a patented Curry 3^rd quarter (10 points on ¾ shooting) the Spurs still clung to a 62 to 60 lead heading into the 4^th.  Late in the game the Spurs were up 10 with roughly five minutes remaining, and then Jack happened.  Six straight points on two nearly identical high pick and rolls and a pick and roll that Jack dragged through the lane, all leading to a barrage of midrange jumpers from the backup point guard.  They were points when the Warriors had to have buckets.  It helped spark the 25-7 run that the Warriors closed the show with on Mother’s Day.

It was Mother's Day, and Steph Curry was playing. Reason enough.

Jack has been vilified for his poor court vision and propensity to shoot early in the shot clock, or not facilitate ball movement in a classic point guard fashion.  I must admit, there are possessions that make me wonder why he overdrives into a clogged lane when moving the ball seems like the obvious decision, or why he may choose to take an early shot despite a teammate having a hot hand. Moreover, his +/- point differential per 100 possessions (a statistic used to measure the team’s point production in relation to its opponent) is a mediocre +1.2.

Jack’s contribution can’t be boiled down to statistical analysis.  Jack provides an invaluable service for the team, allowing Curry to move off the ball while simultaneously being a legitimate scoring threat from the point guard position.  And in the late afternoon of a contested Game 4, he showed his mettle (and value) to the Golden State team.  He’s their spark, a mixture of toughness and bullheadedness.  He has largely been the overlooked contributor on most teams, even dating back to his college days at Georgia Tech.  He has vacillated between point guard and shooting guard, almost as often as he has changed from reserve to starter on the five teams for which he has played.

His vast experience is an anomaly on a team where several of the star contributors are under the age of 25 with a dearth of big-time NBA minutes.  According to reports, he will opt out of his contract at the end of the year; a contract that is due to pay him 5.4 million.  With a relatively weak draft class, and several teams with ample cap room, the likelihood of inflated contract offers to free agents is virtually a certainty. I’m hoping the Warriors find a way to re-sign him, but with a player option of over 11 million dollars due to Richard Jefferson it could be extremely costly to do so.  So make hay while the sun shines Golden State, because the numbers look like they won’t be in Jack’s favor once again.