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NFC South

Atlanta Falcons:

2013 Regular Season Schedule:

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8	@	New Orleans Saints
2		September 15		St. Louis Rams
3		September 22	@	Miami Dolphins
4		September 29		New England Patriots
5		October 7		New York Jets
6				Bye Week
7		October 20		Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8		October 27	@	Arizona Cardinals
9		November 3	@	Carolina Panthers
10		November 10		Seattle Seahawks
11		November 17	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12		November 21		New Orleans Saints
13		December 1	@	Buffalo Bills
14		December 8	@	Green Bay Packers
15		December 15		Washington Redskins
16		December 23	@	San Francisco 49ers
17		December 29		Carolina Panthers

The Falcons finally made it over their playoff hump last year.  After going winless in the postseason, the Falcons were one half away from going to the Super Bowl.  A disturbing trend emerged in their playoff appearance last season; a propensity to let leads slip away.  The Falcons nearly let Seattle comeback in their opening game after going up by 14 points earlier in that game.  My father has a saying, “you must go to the well and be denied, before being allowed to drink.” It’s an annoying saying. Mostly because he repeats it—and because it’s usually true.  Very rarely do teams go worst to first in this league. Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Ravens failed in the AFC championship the year before taking the crown.  Falcons fans have no reason not to think their ascension won’t be the same.  The Falcons offense is an embarrassment of riches; boasting Pro Bowl-caliber talent at every skill position. Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan are all back and should be their usual dynamic selves. While Michael Turner is gone, management replaced him with Steven Jackson. Jackson, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards every year since 2005, adds a pass-catching dimension that Turner didn’t possess.  Keep in mind, if the Falcons had a more reliable running game last year, they may have been able to prevent the 49ers from coming back late in the playoff game. Add Jacquizz Rodgers as a backup and X-factor for the team, and Atlanta should improve on its 7^th ranked points per game from last year.

As great a runner as he is, his pass-catching ability may be his biggest asset

I was shocked that this team was top 5 in points allowed per game last year. While they were 24^th in yards allowed, they were stingy in the red zone; a classic bend-but-don’t-break defense. The team added Osi Umenyiora to replace departing defensive end John Abraham. Perhaps he can jumpstart a team that was 25^th in sacks. And despite their positive giveaway/takeaway differential (+13), they ranked in the bottom half of the league in interceptions and forced fumbles.  I have my doubts that a team that gives up so many yards and doesn’t force turnovers can have a repeat performance, but their offense may be able to carry them through.

Estimated regular season record: 11-5

Carolina Panthers:

2013 Regular Season

Team Games & Schedule

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8		Seattle Seahawks
2		September 15	@	Buffalo Bills
3		September 22		New York Giants
4				Bye Week
5		October 6	@	Arizona Cardinals
6		October 13	@	Minnesota Vikings
7		October 20		St. Louis Rams
8		October 24	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9		November 3		Atlanta Falcons
10		November 10	@	San Francisco 49ers
11		November 18		New England Patriots
12		November 24	@	Miami Dolphins
13		December 1		Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14		December 8	@	New Orleans Saints
15		December 15		New York Jets
16		December 22		New Orleans Saints
17		December 29	@	Atlanta Falcons

There was a lot of talk about a “sophomore slump” for quarterback Cam Newton. While his yards slipped, so did his turnovers…and the team record reflected that with an increase in wins. His pass attempts went down as coach Ron Rivera began to realize that the team’s personnel was closer to a ground and pound team than a high flying attack. Despite exposing him to sacks with the decrease in drop backs, Newton was hit more than any QB in the NFL because of his running (either through designed QB draws, scrambling, or zone read options).  Newton shouldn’t leading the team in rushing (something no one has done since Donovan McNabb in 2002), especially with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  The Panthers offense was more potent when the team featured two tight ends (both good pass catchers) in 2011 and could run the ball in big, conventional sets. Tight End Brandon Williams may be able to play alongside Greg Olsen to give the team that look by the end of the season (despite being a project at the position, he’s arguably the best athlete on the team).  To his credit, Rivera said that there will be less zone-read and more traditional handoff packages this year; a change that will help the running backs, who averaged more yards per carry in such sets as compared to zone read plays. Kenjon Barner should help alleviate the stress on Williams as Stewart recovers from an ankle injury.  Moreover, reducing the wear and tear on Newton will improve his accuracy. Newton only broke 60% completion percentage once after rushing for 8+ times the week before. 

Keeping Cam clean is priority one for this offense

The defense had some epic collapses late in games; unable to hold leads in the fourth quarter multiple times (including some devastating last second drives by Atlanta and Tampa Bay that infuriated fans and perhaps kept the team from playoff contention). This year, the secondary should be much better with Josh Norman’s improvement as well as free agent acquisition Mike Mitchell.  Mitchell’s veteran leadership at the strong safety position should help improve the weakest part of the defense. The strongest part, the linebacking corps will add a (hopefully) healthy John Beason to go along with Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly.  Add that to interior lineman Star Lotulelei, who the Panthers selected with their first pick in this year’s draft, and the defense boasts talent at every level.

Estimated regular season record: 11-5

New Orleans Saints

Regular Season Schedule

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8		Atlanta Falcons
2		September 15	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3		September 22		Arizona Cardinals
4		September 30		Miami Dolphins
5		October 6	@	Chicago Bears
6		October 13	@	New England Patriots
7				Bye Week
8		October 27		Buffalo Bills
9		November 3	@	New York Jets
10		November 10		Dallas Cowboys
11		November 17		San Francisco 49ers
12		November 21	@	Atlanta Falcons
13		December 2	@	Seattle Seahawks
14		December 8		Carolina Panthers
15		December 15	@	St. Louis Rams
16		December 22	@	Carolina Panthers
17		December 29		Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Now that the Bountygate fiasco is officially behind them, the Saints look to get back on track now that their Head Coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees are back working together again.  Even without his head coach, Brees went for 5,000 yards and over 40 TDs. He’s a machine with an assortment of weapons (Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and Lance Moore) at his disposal that continues to grow.  In addition to the acquisition of Steve Breaston, draft pick Kenny Stills has wowed in camp and preseason making the WR depth unbelievably talented and varied. Honestly, this team doesn’t rebuild on offense, it reloads. The one question mark may be at left tackle, with Jamal Bushrod leaving via free agency. Charles Brown will be watching Brees’ blind side; but even the best quarterbacks look mortal when lying on their back.  If protection is an issue for this team, Brees may turn the ball over, which he did with some frequency last year (5 fumbles, 19 interceptions).

Brees will need help to get back to the mountaintop

The defense has been the Achilles heel of this team even before it was hit with the questionable suspensions of last year. The year they won the Super Bowl, they weren’t a great defense—just an opportunistic one, forcing turnovers at key points all season and into the playoffs.  They were last in forced fumbles and while they were top 5 in interceptions, they were in the bottom 3 in terms of pass yards allowed per game.  I think the interception number may be indicative of teams pressing their weakness, as opposed to a ball-hawking secondary. Rob Ryan takes his 3-4 scheme to New Orleans. Ryan is known for his aggressive, blitzing style.  Although it may be risky, it should generate more turnovers.  Anything that gets the ball in Brees’ hands more often is probably a good strategy for a team without any star defensive players.

Estimated regular season record: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Regular Season Schedule

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8	@	New York Jets
2		September 15		New Orleans Saints
3		September 22	@	New England Patriots
4		September 29		Arizona Cardinals
5				Bye Week
6		October 13		Philadelphia Eagles
7		October 20	@	Atlanta Falcons
8		October 24		Carolina Panthers
9		November 3	@	Seattle Seahawks
10		November 11		Miami Dolphins
11		November 17		Atlanta Falcons
12		November 24	@	Detroit Lions
13		December 1	@	Carolina Panthers
14		December 8		Buffalo Bills
15		December 15		San Francisco 49ers
16		December 22	@	St. Louis Rams
17		December 29	@	New Orleans Saints

There may not be a more infuriatingly inconsistent quarterback in the league than Josh Freeman.  He set the world on fire with his first full year as a starter in the league. 25 TDs 6 Interceptions later and Bucs fans felt that they had a reason to rejoice and look forward to their future. After a down year as a third year player, he bounced back last year showing that promise again.  It’s no coincidence that his improvement coincided with Doug Martin’s performance at running back. Martin had nearly 1500 rushing yards and 49 receptions totaling 472 yards.  Having such a dynamic every down back will always be a quarterback’s best friend; wide receiver Vincent Jackson doesn’t hurt either. The Bucs were one of the most balanced offensive teams in the league last year, ranking in the top half in pass yards, rushing yards, and total points. If they look to break the .500 mark this year, they’ll need Freeman to make their ancillary players (Mike Williams and Kevin Ogletree) better.

Management raised some eyebrows taking highly touted Mike Glennon, is Freeman on a short lease?

Defensively, Darrelle Revis’ addition makes the entire unit better. Having a lockdown corner in today’s pass-happy league is one of the rarest commodities available.  Not only does Revis’ addition hamper the opposition’s hottest WR, but it frees safeties and linebackers up to roam in coverage or blitz the quarterback. They’ll need as much help as they can get pressuring the opposing signal-caller, they ranked 29^th in sacks last year. The team has tried to bolster the pass rush the past few years in the draft with DaQuan Bowers and Adrian Clayton, and Gerald McCoy all being early draftees.  If they can improve on the line, perhaps they will improve on a unit that ranked 23^rd in points allowed per game.

Estimated Regular Season Record: 4-12