Friday, August 9, 2013

NFC East Preview

NFC East

Washington Redskins:

Record last season: 10-6 (Division Winner)
Playoff finish: Lost Wild Card 24-14 to Seahawks
2013 Schedule (via www.pro-football-reference.com)
Week
Day
Date
Opp
1
September 9
Philadelphia Eagles
2
September 15
@
Green Bay Packers
3
September 22
Detroit Lions
4
September 29
@
Oakland Raiders
5
Bye Week
6
October 13
@
Dallas Cowboys
7
October 20
Chicago Bears
8
October 27
@
Denver Broncos
9
November 3
San Diego Chargers
10
November 7
@
Minnesota Vikings
11
November 17
@
Philadelphia Eagles
12
November 25
SF 49ers
13
December 1
New York Giants
14
December 8
Kansas City Chiefs
15
December 15
@
Atlanta Falcons
16
December 22
Dallas Cowboys
17
December 29
@
New York Giants

The Washington organization won the division for the first time since 1999. Not coincidentally, they rode the coattails of AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Robert Griffin III.  RG3 was as-advertised, he showed the dazzling speed and startling accuracy that he displayed at Baylor.  Coach Mike Shanahan and his son, Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan, incorporated a lot of the plays RG3 ran in college (with elements of the Pistol and zone read option prevalent throughout the playbook).  Another, less appealing thing carried over from college—he suffered an ACL tear both collegiately and professionally.  His biggest development will be to learn the importance of preserving his body and avoiding taking big hits.

The Redskins will look to improve on their defense that ranked 22nd in points allowed per game.  Brian Orakpo’s arrival back to the lineup from his injury will help immensely.  With the returns of Orakpo, a former Pro Bowl Outside Linebacker, and defensive end Adam Carriker, Washington should improve on the 33 sacks that the team totaled last year (leading to a 20th ranking in that statistic).  The team was also 30th in pass yards allowed and dead last in interceptions.  Rookie Bacarri Rambo is slated to start at Free Safety and another rookie, David Amerson, may end up starting at corner before the season is over.  Hard-hitting safety Brandon Meriweather looks to return from a season marred by injury.    DeAngelo Hall will start the season as the number 1 corner.
The team will try to keep RG3 upright as much as possible this season

Being able to duplicate the success on offense will be incredibly interesting.  Due to RG3’s health concern, Coach Shanahan has said there will be less read-option.  Despite being a sixth round selection, Alfred Morris enjoyed the most successful Redskins rookie running back season in the franchise’s history. With less read option (an offensive play that relies on trickery as much as skill) keep an eye on his production.  Between Morris and RG3, the team led the league in rush yards per game.  The offense will get a boost from Fred Davis’ return from his Achilles injury after he showed a real rapport with the then-rookie quarterback. The passing game overall will need to improve from the 213.9 yards per game they averaged last season, as the threat of RG3 running (and the overall potency of their running game) will dissipate.
Estimated Win Total: 10-6

Dallas Cowboys:

Record Last Season: 8-8
2013 Regular Season:
Week
Day
Date
Opp
1
September 8
New York Giants
2
September 15
@
Kansas City Chiefs
3
September 22
St. Louis Rams
4
September 29
@
San Diego Chargers
5
October 6
Denver Broncos
6
October 13
Washington Redskins
7
October 20
@
Philadelphia Eagles
8
October 27
@
Detroit Lions
9
November 3
Minnesota Vikings
10
November 10
@
New Orleans Saints
11
Bye Week
12
November 24
@
New York Giants
13
November 28
Oakland Raiders
14
December 9
@
Chicago Bears
15
December 15
Green Bay Packers
16
December 22
@
Washington Redskins
17
December 29
Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys made a splash with their enormous contract that they signed Tony Romo to in the offseason.  Romo has a lot to prove in some people’s eyes given his lack of playoff success and recent financial windfall.  He threw for nearly 5,000 yards while tossing 28 Touchdowns, but he’ll need drop the 19 interceptions that help lead to his worst passer rating index since he became the Cowboys’ full time starter. For his (and Coach Jason Garrett’s) sake success needs to follow the confidence the franchise has shown in him; and dispel his perceived maddening nonchalance that he can display at inopportune times.

Bill Callahan has taken over play calling duties and an immediate impact has already been felt.  Instead of giving Romo two plays from the sidelines and letting him decide which to pick (a practice that necessitated a lot of verbiage before the huddle), Callahan has been using a numbers system that corresponds with a set of plays on the quarterback’s wrist. The result will be getting out of the huddle more quickly and, perhaps, more plays per game.  There has also been a philosophical shift to become a more balanced play-calling team.  Last year a third of the called plays were runs, and the Cowboys have promised to utilize their running backs more often this upcoming year (which also may explain why they selected TE Gavin Escobar in the 2nd round with needs on the defensive side of the ball). In the first preseason game of the year the race to back up DeMarco Murray looked intense. Phillip Tanner (who led the game with 59 yards), Lance Dunbar, and Joseph Randle will all be battling to pick up the extra workload sure to come their way with increased carries and an injury-prone player playing in front of them.
Which one of these is not like the others?

Defensively, the Cowboys must improve on the 24th ranked points per game performance that they put up last year. They have play-makers at every level of the defense. DeMarcus Ware is a perennial Pro Bowl pass rusher, Sean Lee is an incredibly talented LB, and Morris Claiborne’s ball skills could improve on a defense that only had 7 interceptions all of last year.  The Cowboys (in a refrain that is sung around the League by at least 15 teams every offseason) promised to be more aggressive and increase their takeaways.  It might be more than just preseason puffery with this Dallas unit given that they will be going with an entirely new system;switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3 and a new defensive coordinator. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 defense has been praised for its ability to generate turnovers at every stop along the way.
Estimated Win Total: 7-9

NY Giants:

Record Last Season: 9-7
2013 Regular Season Schedule
Week
Day
Date
Opp
1
September 8
@
Dallas Cowboys
2
September 15
Denver Broncos
3
September 22
@
Carolina Panthers
4
September 29
@
Kansas City Chiefs
5
October 6
Philadelphia Eagles
6
October 10
@
Chicago Bears
7
October 21
Minnesota Vikings
8
October 27
@
Philadelphia Eagles
9
Bye Week
10
November 10
Oakland Raiders
11
November 17
Green Bay Packers
12
November 24
Dallas Cowboys
13
December 1
@
Washington Redskins
14
December 8
@
San Diego Chargers
15
December 15
Seattle Seahhawks
16
December 22
@
Detroit Lions
17
December 29
Washington Redskins

The ultimate feast or famine team is back. Coming off a disappointing season, Eli Manning is looking to improve on a season that saw him fail to break 4,000 yards or 60% completion rate. He’ll have to do it without Ahmad Bradshaw, who has been replaced by former NCSU player, David Wilson. While there has been a change in the backfield, the entire offensive line returns after a season where they allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the league. Oft-injured Wide receiver (and former UNC standout) Hakeem Nicks will need to stay healthy for an offensive unit that was ranked 6th in points per game (26.8).

The defense was porous against the run, and second round selection Johnathan Hankins should help bolster the defensive line. Jason Pierre Paul is recovering from off season back surgery and looking to rebound from a disappointing 2012 season.  The team’s strength during its Super Bowl run was its aggressive line play and its ability to pressure the opposition’s quarterback. Last year they were dead last in sacks, which put more pressure on its unspectacular secondary.  Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell will need more success this season or he may be on his way out.
Estimated Win Total: 9-7


Philadelphia Eagles

Record Last season: 4-12
Week
Day
Date
Opp
1
September 9
@
Washington Redskins
2
September 15
San Diego Chargers
3
September 19
Kansas City Chiefs
4
September 29
@
Denver Broncos
5
October 6
@
New York Giants
6
October 13
@
TB Buccaneers
7
October 20
Dallas Cowboys
8
October 27
New York Giants
9
November 3
@
Oakland Raiders
10
November 10
@
Green Bay Packers
11
November 17
Washington Redskins
12
Bye Week
13
December 1
Arizona Cardinals
14
December 8
Detroit Lions
15
December 15
@
Minnesota Vikings
16
December 22
Chicago Bears
17
December 29
@
Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles started last season 3-1…and won one more for the remaining 12 games.  Their quarterback situation is a microcosm of their up and down season.  Michael Vick started 10 games and Nick Foles started six.  What’s that saying about having two quarterbacks? Even more fascinating; with new coach Chip Kelly incorporating elements of his Oregon offense, the Eagles have yet to name a starter for the season.  Both quarterbacks have run the first-team offense in training camp, and Kelly has reiterated all pre-season that it is an open competition.  It will be interesting to see if this indecisiveness at the most important position in football will hurt a team that is already influx with the new system.

When Kelly was hired, the first prominent questions had to do with whether he’d be able to take his up-tempo system from Oregon and incorporated it successfully in the NFL.  It’s a system built on pace and incredible speed at the skill positions.  Theoretically the current roster fits the scheme. DeSean Jackson, LaSean McCoy, and (until his season-ending injury) Jeremy Maclin all seem to fit the former Ducks program.  Vick reminds me a lot of the mobile quarterbacks that Kelly coached in Oregon; always threatening to run and spreading the defense as thin as possible.  A couple of important differences to watch as Kelly and his system make the leap. 1) There will be a much less drastic talent gap between teams. Oregon was flat out more talented than most of the competition it faced.  It’s true of most of the successful college football programs. They recruit the best players possible.  There is no “talent cap” only a limit to the scholarships given.  In the NFL the hard salary cap prevents one team from stockpiling ridiculous amounts of talent. 2nd: because NFL rosters are smaller than college football rosters having a team with a breakneck pace is difficult and a bit risky. Still, Kelly has assured Philly fans that he will adapt the system to the League…only time will tell.
The Musical Chairs bit at QB is a risky gambit for Kelly 

The Philly defense was 29th in points allowed.  They gave up 27 or more points 10 times last year (they lost every game).  While stars aren't everything on the defensive side of the ball, their roster doesn't boast one Pro-Bowl or All-Pro player. I don’t know how a scheme can save a defense without much talent, and add to that the fact that they’ll be on the field more than ever given the pace of their offense…could make for some disastrous results.

Estimated Win Total: 7-9

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