NBA Pull-ups

It’s so hard to get a full post out of one game in the NBA.  In the NFL, it’s (primarily) a one day a week gig, in the NBA there are multiple games daily, with teams playing 2-3 times a week for months.  So in order to avoid fatigue (mostly my own) I’ll lightly touch on NBA hot topics happening around the league.

• ·         The idea of contraction has never looked so good. In the entire Eastern conference there are two teams worth watching nightly.  I felt that teams wouldn't be interested in winning because of the desire to get in to the lottery (which has more jackpots at the top of the draft than any since 2003), but I didn't know the Bobcats at 10-12 would be a game out of having home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs if the tournament started today.  It’ll be a hilarious shift of power when all of the best rookies are in the East next year, though.
• ·       
•  Speaking of the Bobcats, they signed Chris Douglas-Roberts to a contract.  I’ve been a fan of CDR since his days alongside Derrick Rose at the University of Memphis.  While he led that NBA-laden college team in scoring (and nearly to a title), he hasn’t been able to catch on in the NBA despite some insane games in the D-League. No one else cares about this story, but I love that a team that has historically struggled to get points, has added such a dynamic scorer.  Good for him and the franchise.
• ·         Kobe’s back.  I wasn’t sure he’d be back. For real.  I was in Virginia at an NBA pre-draft tournament filled with pro hopefuls when I got back to the hotel and caught the end of the Lakers game—and what I thought may have been the end of an all-time great player.  When I found out exactly what the injury was (torn Achilles), I immediately thought of Elton Brand.  Before his injury, Brand was a 20 pts/10 rebounds player who was in the discussion for best power forward in the league. Afterwards? Brand has been a role playing journeyman since he tore his Achilles; and he got hurt at 28 and not 34. I know all about the will of a champion and all of that, but seeing Bryant play with any real success only eight months after a devastating injury is impressive.  What he will actually mean to the Lakers squad this year is another story for another post.
• ·         Portland’s hooping.  Ok, part of the hype and surprise surrounding the Trailblazers is because of how poorly they played last year.  There was talent on this team last season, but because of a bench that was thinner than a Lethal Weapon plot, they caught a lot of L’s that they probably wouldn’t have otherwise.  With the addition of Robin Lopez (who enjoys doing the dirty work of rebounding and protecting the rim that LaMarcus Aldridge has never shown an interest in) and Damian Lillard’s consistent play, the team is good.  They ate through some poor teams early, but recent wins over the Pacers and Golden State Warriors means their success may have more substance to it.  They’ll be tough at home all year because of that fantastic fan base, but I don’t think they’ll be a factor in who comes out of the West because no one on that team has won anything.  That said, that lowly win/loss record from last year netted them CJ McCollum in the draft; so we may not have seen the best this team has to offer as the rookie works his way into playing shape following his offseason injury.
• ·         Jason Kidd’s coaching tenure hasn’t gotten off to a great start in Brooklyn.  With so much turnover in the roster and so many injuries (Brook Lopez, Deron Williams, and Andrei Kirilenko have all missed significant time) even an experienced coach would have issues.  Kidd never coached at any level before taking over a team that General Manager Billy King admitted to having a 1-year window; but Kidd’s former top assistant, Lawrence Frank, had.  Kidd recently demoted Frank after a blowup on the bench. Kidd may have felt that his assistant didn’t know his place in the pecking order.  When I went to the Nets training camp, frank led most of the drills and the camp, generally.  When I saw the players crowded around the white board as a play was drawn up, it was Frank orchestrating the set and the huddle.  If Kidd was really upset with Frank’s senses of entitlement, he should recognize his own culpability for enabling it.
• ·         Across town, the New York Knicks are dreadful.  It’s an odd roster missing its defensive anchor in Tyson Chandler. The best synopsis of the dissonance of the season comes from Carmelo Anthony, who feels the need to take it on himself when the offense isn't going well. Melo’s understanding the real problem with the ball-stopping offense plagued by isolation plays. I don’t know if Melo will return after he opts out, but I want to see him play with a talented, pass-first point guard once in his career before his scoring talents fall off.  I think it would make all the difference in his effectiveness.
• ·         Miami Heat just lost to Indiana Pacers so naturally I’m going to write about…Michael Beasley? The team missed Beasley and his scoring punch off the bench.  I underestimated his early impact because of Coach Erik Spoelstra’s penchant to adhere to his rotation.  He probably won’t get any 6^th man of the year votes, but he really should if his play keeps up.   
• ·         Indiana Pacers give hope to fans of small market teams everywhere.  The core of that team is home grown (with David West being the exception), and all of them have improved. That’s nuts. This isn’t college, that doesn’t happen in the pros.  Lance Stephenson, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert have all improved dramatically over multiple years.  I don’t know what they’re doing with their coaches or scouts, but its easily one of the best run organizations in the NBA.

I miss anything?

Panthers and their Pride

Cam's arm will be as important as his legs this Monday night vs the juggernaut 

I was exhausted after the 49ers vs Panthers contest. The yelling, the jumping, the sadness, all of it was exhausting; it took it out of me. I’m not built for having a rollercoaster of emotions in such a compact period of time (so naturally being a sports fan will probably kill me, and I’m ok with that).  And you know what I did after I sobered up I calmed down? I checked the schedule to see who the Panthers play next week. That’s it.  The Panthers get one day to enjoy their huge win that put them on the map nationally.

The National exposure only increases this week as the Panthers take on the New England Patriots in the primetime of Monday Night Football; another week, another challenge.  No rest for the weary.  As much as we learned about the Panthers in their win vs 49ers, this Patriot game presents a unique set of questions; can the Panthers handle the success? Can Carolina beat an elite QB? Is it possible that this franchise can be offensively special when they need to be?

The San Francisco game answered a lot of lingering questions.  The contest was a mirror image slugfest.  Two fantastic defenses feasted on uneven offenses.  Despite his overall record as a starter (13-6), Colin Kaepernick has been more vociferously criticized for his inability to put up big numbers and move the 49ers down the field through the air.  After starting out with a 400 yard performance in week 1, the 2^nd year starter has struggled of late even while the team is (5-1) in its last six games.

During this win streak, the Panthers haven't faced a QB as prolific as Brady

The Panthers fought through its own miscues to beat the defending NFC Champion several drops, two turnovers, and a questionable call (on the play Vernon Davis suffered a concussion, I was of the mind that he fumbled) and found a way to win.  The same tight games that once eluded the team, have been going the Panthers’ way of late.  The defense was huge all game (even sealing the win with an interception) and propped up the team for the second straight week, covering for a pedestrian performance from star Cam Newton.  Newton, to his credit, wasn't nearly as bad as his numbers indicated (16 for 32 with 169 yards and an interception).  His receivers let him down on several third downs that killed drives, but the ten points amassed was enough to get the team to (6-3).

10 points won’t be enough against Tom Brady and Co. The team will have to show exactly how dynamic it can be.  Thankfully, the Panthers will have a full complement of its running backs (Mike Tolbert, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart) that amassed 94 yards against the 49ers.  Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly (the nose tackles for the team) have been placed on IR, and linebacker Jerod Mayo is also done for the season, making New England more susceptible to the run.  The run will be important to wear the defense down, keep Tom Brady on the sidelines, and to set-up the play-action.  The Panthers won’t be able to simply run to win, Coach Belichick is known for targeting and taking away the strength of his competitors and Monday night will be no different. True, the run game is Carolina’s most devastating weapon available to the NFC South team, but Killa Cam (who will need to make his own contributions to the run game with his planned runs and play-extending scrambles) has to be able to make throws to prolong drives and get the team down the field to score TDs.

Defensively, Panthers’ fans should be concerned about Rob Gronkowski. During this most recent run, the team hasn’t faced a QB/receiving threat combo of this caliber (remember, Davis was knocked out early with a concussion); and the secondary, while improved, is the weakest part of that side of the ball.  Plus, the matchup will be good practice for the team’s Cajun rivals when they face twice in December.  Free Safety Mike Mitchell said, “We heard all the naysayers say we hadn’t played anybody…well, we played somebody today on the road in their place, and beat them…we’re relevant, we’re here.”

If he wants those words to ring true, they’ll have to win again.  That is not fair, but that’s what it means to be a good team. Consistency isn’t easy, but neither is football.  

Pencils Down

Carolina will need a big and mistake-free game from its QB

There's a big test for the Panthers coming this Sunday. After stumbling out of the blocks early to a 1-3 start, the team has reeled off four straight wins, getting above .500 in Oct/Nov for the first time in several seasons. While the wins were necessary to validate some pundit's predictions, a better gauge of exactly how good they are will be their 4:15 EST contest in San Francisco Sunday. So far, the Panthers have beaten the teams they were "supposed" to beat. Carolina demolished the Giants and Vikings, while physically dominating Tampa Bay and the Rams. Now they go into a harsh environment, on the other side of the football world, to battle a team that has won its last five games and had an extra week to prepare coming off its bye.

The team has legitimately changed what they were as a team. Instead of throwing the ball a high volume, and running solely through the read option, the team has relied on its traditional running game (primarily DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert, though Johnathan Stewart is finally healthy enough to see time on the field) with Cam Newton serving as a secondary option through the air. No conversation about the Panthers can be had without discussing the fantastic defense.

Thomas Davis is finally healthy after undergoing THREE separate ACL injuries. He is paired with the best middle linebacker in football, Luke Kuechly, and help from an attacking an opportunistic linebacking corps. None of their success would be possible if it weren't for the gauntlet of defensive lineman that general manager Dave Gettleman (formerly of the similarly-assembled NY Giants) has put together. Greg Hardy, Star Lotulelei, Charles Johnson all head up the aggressive unit. While the secondary is the relatively weakest part of the defense, as they have gotten healthier, players are beginning to distinguish themselves.

Perhaps the biggest change has been in Coach Rivera and the offensive coordinator Mike Shula.  Rivera's shown a propensity to "go for it" on fourth down after several close losses. The "play for the win" mentality has been extremely successful and perhaps has led to the coach taking the shackles off Shula. It isn't just the 4th down conversions that have led to a more explosive offense, the team is challenging its opponents down field, as well as moving Cam out of the pocket and getting playmakers the ball in space.

When battling through eight games and battling for a playoff spot/division title there is no such thing as a moral victory.

[Sidenote: The Panthers don't play the division-leading Saints until December, and then play them twice in three weeks. It'll be high drama late in the regular season, and I love it]

Going againts the reigning NFC titleholders in their spot is a legitimate litmus test for a young, talented. I believe the Panthers will #KeepPounding. Carolina 21 SF 17.

NFC South Preview

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons:

2013 Regular Season Schedule:

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8	@	New Orleans Saints
2		September 15		St. Louis Rams
3		September 22	@	Miami Dolphins
4		September 29		New England Patriots
5		October 7		New York Jets
6				Bye Week
7		October 20		Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8		October 27	@	Arizona Cardinals
9		November 3	@	Carolina Panthers
10		November 10		Seattle Seahawks
11		November 17	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12		November 21		New Orleans Saints
13		December 1	@	Buffalo Bills
14		December 8	@	Green Bay Packers
15		December 15		Washington Redskins
16		December 23	@	San Francisco 49ers
17		December 29		Carolina Panthers

The Falcons finally made it over their playoff hump last year.  After going winless in the postseason, the Falcons were one half away from going to the Super Bowl.  A disturbing trend emerged in their playoff appearance last season; a propensity to let leads slip away.  The Falcons nearly let Seattle comeback in their opening game after going up by 14 points earlier in that game.  My father has a saying, “you must go to the well and be denied, before being allowed to drink.” It’s an annoying saying. Mostly because he repeats it—and because it’s usually true.  Very rarely do teams go worst to first in this league. Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Ravens failed in the AFC championship the year before taking the crown.  Falcons fans have no reason not to think their ascension won’t be the same.  The Falcons offense is an embarrassment of riches; boasting Pro Bowl-caliber talent at every skill position. Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan are all back and should be their usual dynamic selves. While Michael Turner is gone, management replaced him with Steven Jackson. Jackson, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards every year since 2005, adds a pass-catching dimension that Turner didn’t possess.  Keep in mind, if the Falcons had a more reliable running game last year, they may have been able to prevent the 49ers from coming back late in the playoff game. Add Jacquizz Rodgers as a backup and X-factor for the team, and Atlanta should improve on its 7^th ranked points per game from last year.

As great a runner as he is, his pass-catching ability may be his biggest asset

I was shocked that this team was top 5 in points allowed per game last year. While they were 24^th in yards allowed, they were stingy in the red zone; a classic bend-but-don’t-break defense. The team added Osi Umenyiora to replace departing defensive end John Abraham. Perhaps he can jumpstart a team that was 25^th in sacks. And despite their positive giveaway/takeaway differential (+13), they ranked in the bottom half of the league in interceptions and forced fumbles.  I have my doubts that a team that gives up so many yards and doesn’t force turnovers can have a repeat performance, but their offense may be able to carry them through.

Estimated regular season record: 11-5

Carolina Panthers:

2013 Regular Season

Team Games & Schedule

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8		Seattle Seahawks
2		September 15	@	Buffalo Bills
3		September 22		New York Giants
4				Bye Week
5		October 6	@	Arizona Cardinals
6		October 13	@	Minnesota Vikings
7		October 20		St. Louis Rams
8		October 24	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9		November 3		Atlanta Falcons
10		November 10	@	San Francisco 49ers
11		November 18		New England Patriots
12		November 24	@	Miami Dolphins
13		December 1		Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14		December 8	@	New Orleans Saints
15		December 15		New York Jets
16		December 22		New Orleans Saints
17		December 29	@	Atlanta Falcons

There was a lot of talk about a “sophomore slump” for quarterback Cam Newton. While his yards slipped, so did his turnovers…and the team record reflected that with an increase in wins. His pass attempts went down as coach Ron Rivera began to realize that the team’s personnel was closer to a ground and pound team than a high flying attack. Despite exposing him to sacks with the decrease in drop backs, Newton was hit more than any QB in the NFL because of his running (either through designed QB draws, scrambling, or zone read options).  Newton shouldn’t leading the team in rushing (something no one has done since Donovan McNabb in 2002), especially with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  The Panthers offense was more potent when the team featured two tight ends (both good pass catchers) in 2011 and could run the ball in big, conventional sets. Tight End Brandon Williams may be able to play alongside Greg Olsen to give the team that look by the end of the season (despite being a project at the position, he’s arguably the best athlete on the team).  To his credit, Rivera said that there will be less zone-read and more traditional handoff packages this year; a change that will help the running backs, who averaged more yards per carry in such sets as compared to zone read plays. Kenjon Barner should help alleviate the stress on Williams as Stewart recovers from an ankle injury.  Moreover, reducing the wear and tear on Newton will improve his accuracy. Newton only broke 60% completion percentage once after rushing for 8+ times the week before. 

Keeping Cam clean is priority one for this offense

The defense had some epic collapses late in games; unable to hold leads in the fourth quarter multiple times (including some devastating last second drives by Atlanta and Tampa Bay that infuriated fans and perhaps kept the team from playoff contention). This year, the secondary should be much better with Josh Norman’s improvement as well as free agent acquisition Mike Mitchell.  Mitchell’s veteran leadership at the strong safety position should help improve the weakest part of the defense. The strongest part, the linebacking corps will add a (hopefully) healthy John Beason to go along with Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly.  Add that to interior lineman Star Lotulelei, who the Panthers selected with their first pick in this year’s draft, and the defense boasts talent at every level.

Estimated regular season record: 11-5

New Orleans Saints

Regular Season Schedule

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8		Atlanta Falcons
2		September 15	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3		September 22		Arizona Cardinals
4		September 30		Miami Dolphins
5		October 6	@	Chicago Bears
6		October 13	@	New England Patriots
7				Bye Week
8		October 27		Buffalo Bills
9		November 3	@	New York Jets
10		November 10		Dallas Cowboys
11		November 17		San Francisco 49ers
12		November 21	@	Atlanta Falcons
13		December 2	@	Seattle Seahawks
14		December 8		Carolina Panthers
15		December 15	@	St. Louis Rams
16		December 22	@	Carolina Panthers
17		December 29		Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Now that the Bountygate fiasco is officially behind them, the Saints look to get back on track now that their Head Coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees are back working together again.  Even without his head coach, Brees went for 5,000 yards and over 40 TDs. He’s a machine with an assortment of weapons (Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and Lance Moore) at his disposal that continues to grow.  In addition to the acquisition of Steve Breaston, draft pick Kenny Stills has wowed in camp and preseason making the WR depth unbelievably talented and varied. Honestly, this team doesn’t rebuild on offense, it reloads. The one question mark may be at left tackle, with Jamal Bushrod leaving via free agency. Charles Brown will be watching Brees’ blind side; but even the best quarterbacks look mortal when lying on their back.  If protection is an issue for this team, Brees may turn the ball over, which he did with some frequency last year (5 fumbles, 19 interceptions).

Brees will need help to get back to the mountaintop

The defense has been the Achilles heel of this team even before it was hit with the questionable suspensions of last year. The year they won the Super Bowl, they weren’t a great defense—just an opportunistic one, forcing turnovers at key points all season and into the playoffs.  They were last in forced fumbles and while they were top 5 in interceptions, they were in the bottom 3 in terms of pass yards allowed per game.  I think the interception number may be indicative of teams pressing their weakness, as opposed to a ball-hawking secondary. Rob Ryan takes his 3-4 scheme to New Orleans. Ryan is known for his aggressive, blitzing style.  Although it may be risky, it should generate more turnovers.  Anything that gets the ball in Brees’ hands more often is probably a good strategy for a team without any star defensive players.

Estimated regular season record: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Regular Season Schedule

Week	Day	Date		Opp
1		September 8	@	New York Jets
2		September 15		New Orleans Saints
3		September 22	@	New England Patriots
4		September 29		Arizona Cardinals
5				Bye Week
6		October 13		Philadelphia Eagles
7		October 20	@	Atlanta Falcons
8		October 24		Carolina Panthers
9		November 3	@	Seattle Seahawks
10		November 11		Miami Dolphins
11		November 17		Atlanta Falcons
12		November 24	@	Detroit Lions
13		December 1	@	Carolina Panthers
14		December 8		Buffalo Bills
15		December 15		San Francisco 49ers
16		December 22	@	St. Louis Rams
17		December 29	@	New Orleans Saints

There may not be a more infuriatingly inconsistent quarterback in the league than Josh Freeman.  He set the world on fire with his first full year as a starter in the league. 25 TDs 6 Interceptions later and Bucs fans felt that they had a reason to rejoice and look forward to their future. After a down year as a third year player, he bounced back last year showing that promise again.  It’s no coincidence that his improvement coincided with Doug Martin’s performance at running back. Martin had nearly 1500 rushing yards and 49 receptions totaling 472 yards.  Having such a dynamic every down back will always be a quarterback’s best friend; wide receiver Vincent Jackson doesn’t hurt either. The Bucs were one of the most balanced offensive teams in the league last year, ranking in the top half in pass yards, rushing yards, and total points. If they look to break the .500 mark this year, they’ll need Freeman to make their ancillary players (Mike Williams and Kevin Ogletree) better.

Management raised some eyebrows taking highly touted Mike Glennon, is Freeman on a short lease?

Defensively, Darrelle Revis’ addition makes the entire unit better. Having a lockdown corner in today’s pass-happy league is one of the rarest commodities available.  Not only does Revis’ addition hamper the opposition’s hottest WR, but it frees safeties and linebackers up to roam in coverage or blitz the quarterback. They’ll need as much help as they can get pressuring the opposing signal-caller, they ranked 29^th in sacks last year. The team has tried to bolster the pass rush the past few years in the draft with DaQuan Bowers and Adrian Clayton, and Gerald McCoy all being early draftees.  If they can improve on the line, perhaps they will improve on a unit that ranked 23^rd in points allowed per game.

Estimated Regular Season Record: 4-12