I went 3-1 last week.
I say that less to boast (all four favorites won, so no big deal really)
and more to preemptively fight any poor showing in my picks this week. As last
week, I will include my predictions for the score, the line, as well as the
Over/Under.
Baltimore Ravens
(+9.5)
As I alluded to last week, I’m a huge Ray Lewis fan. He and Charles Woodson are the greatest
defensive players I’ve had the pleasure of seeing. The defense responded like you’d expect a
veteran, ball-hawking defense to respond vs a rookie QB—they dominated. They held the Colts to 9 points and forced two
turnovers. While they were able to hold
the team to three Field Goals, they surrendered 419 total yards, including over 150
yards on the ground to Indianapolis. The
Colts were always one play away from busting open the game on several drives,
but (either through poor execution or turnover) couldn’t do it. I’m not used to seeing a bend-but-don’t-break
defense from the Ravens, but it was effective last week.
Joe Flacco was confounding against the Colts. He would go from looking inept in executing
their gameplan, to looking like an elite QB in the same drive. Flacco may be the first QB that I can
remember that throws a better deep ball than intermediate one. Flacco completed seven pass plays for over 20
yards (legitimately long passes too, only one of those was a short completion
that the receiver turned into yards after catch). Ray Rice lost two fumbles on promising drives
that otherwise would’ve probably resulted in points and made the final score
(24-9) even more lopsided.
VS.
Denver Broncos
My favorite QB of all time is Peyton Manning. I can’t think of anything cooler than a
Quarterback getting a play, calmly walking to the line of scrimmage and saying,
“nah, G”. Manning has been a welcomed
surprise all year; he went from people questioning if he should return at all
(following several neck surgeries) to being in the thick of the MVP race. He
left the only franchise he had ever known (that Colts one...the one that just
lost last week) to a team that was getting over “Tebow Mania”. In that short time period, he has implemented
his system of checks and Demaryius Thomas has emerged as a Pro Bowl-caliber
talent.
Additionally, Knowshon Moreno seamlessly took over for an injured
Willis McGahee, rushing for 510 yards over the final 6 games of the season.
Defensively, this team bears a hell of a striking
resemblance to that Colts squad that Peyton led to the title in 2006.
[Sidenote: Have you ever gone to look at Peyton’s numbers
from that run? Despite being 2nd in the league in points scored that
year and averaging a Quarterback Rating of 101 for the regular season, Manning
was mediocre at best during their title campaign. He had a 69.1 Quarterback rating over that
span. For context, Trent Dilfer had a 83.7 rating in the playoffs when the Ravens won their
title]
They are built to play with the lead. They have two fantastic QB rushers in Elvis
Dumervil and Von Miller who combined for 29.5 sacks this regular season. They gave up the 4th least amount
of points this year, and didn’t allow 300 yards passing in a single game all
year. Really the only question
surrounding this unit is if they can continue their dominance vs good teams.
The Broncos were only 2-3 vs playoff teams this year; and in those games they
gave up 25.8 points per game, nearly a touchdown more than their season
average.
Matchup: Soak in
Ray Lewis’ last game folks. Those drives
that Luck couldn’t complete and resulted in FGs will be the ones that Manning
hammers home. While I’m concerned about
the Broncos secondary and the long bombs they may give up with those fast and
physical receivers of the Ravens, I think Flacco will succumb to the pressure
late. Over/Under 46. 28-17 Broncos.
Green Bay Packers
(-3)
The Packers rolled vs the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers was comfortable all game in the
knowledge that the Vikings were never a threat to score without their QB. Rodgers has been sensational this year with
39 TDs and only 8 INTs. Additionally, he
has the highest Quarterback rating in postseason history. It’s tempting to look at the week 1 matchup
between the teams to see how he performed, but honestly both of these teams
have changed drastically since then.
Green Bay is a passing team that runs to close games and to alleviate
the opposition’s pass rush. Despite it
being largely one dimensional, the Packers are a seasoned team with weapons in
the passing game. They are absurdly dangerous racking up the 5th
amount of points per game despite a litany of injuries.
A lot will be written about the 49ers defense (and
rightfully so) but the Packers have a talented team in their own right. They ranked 11th in points allowed
per games, but did so without Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson for a large
chunk of the season.
VS
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers underwent the most change of any playoff team
because of the switch at QB. Colin
Kaepernick took over when Alex Smith was knocked out of a game with a
concussion. Since then, Kaepernick and
the 49ers have gone 5-2. Despite the
controversy surrounding the switch, Jim Harbaugh has never wavered from his
decision. Perhaps it’s because the
numbers put up by both Quarterbacks are so comparable. Smith threw a higher completion percentage,
while Kaepernick threw for more yards per completion. A lower percentage of Kaepernick’s throws
resulted in Interceptions, but a higher percentage of Smith’s resulted in TDs.
Despite the change in QB, the running game is the meat of the
offense. The team was 4th in
rush yards per game, led by Pro Bowler Frank Gore. Maybe Coach Harbaugh is so confident in his
decision because it really doesn’t matter who hands the ball off from center.
The 49ers defense was imposing all year. They were able to pressure the QB while being
the 4th best team against the run.
Sadly their line took major hits with injuries to Justin and Aldon Smith
(both are questionable for this Saturday’s game). Aldon had 19.5 sacks this
year, and figured to be vital to making Rodgers’ day more comfortable.
Matchup: Of all
of the weekend’s games, this is the most difficult for me to predict. I’ve liked
the 49ers all season because of their makeup.
They are a strong, physical team that has been consistent all year. But rookie QBs in the Playoffs historically
don’t perform well, and Aldon Smith’s tricep injury makes me believe Rodgers
may not face the pressure he would have otherwise. Over/Under 45. 24-20 Green Bay.
Seattle Seahawks (-3)
This team performed exactly as I thought it would last
week. Russell Wilson threw the ball
proficiently and Marshawn Lynch closed the door in the 4th Quarter. Wilson looked shaky on a couple of
throws downfield, but it was his first postseason game in the NFL. All year his WR corps has gotten more and
more reliable, and Leon Washington looked on the verge of breaking a few big
returns last week vs Washington.
Despite allowing two straight TD drives, the defense was
exceptional for the rest of the day.
Sadly the Seahawks lost DE Chris Clemons (11.5 sacks), who would’ve been
instrumental in pressuring Matt Ryan.
The secondary was able coax an INT out of RG3, who only threw 5 during
the regular season.
VS
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have an array of weapons on offense. They have the most physical and athletic pair
of WRs in the League. Michael Turner and
upstart Jacquizz Rodgers are a quality pair of backs. Their success comes down to quality play
calling, and Matt Ryan’s execution. He
has been maligned for not winning a playoff game previously in his career. I like when this team establishes their run
game, and makes it as capable a threat as their loaded passing offense.
Their defense is ranked 5th in points
allowed. Even though the team boasts
stars in Assante Samuel, Thomas Decoud and John Abraham, it’s a true team
effort, and only gave up 30+ points twice this season.
Matchup:
I believe in Russell Wilson more
than Matt Ryan. There, I said it. I know
what I said earlier about rookie QBs (in reference to Colin Kaepernick) but
this isn’t his first game and he already has more postseason wins than Ryan. Both the Seahawks corners and Falcons WRs are used to
physically dominating their counterparts.
I’m
really interested to see the Falcons WR play the Seahawks physical
corners. They will need another turnover
from this secondary to win this game, and I think they’ll get it. 28-24 Seahawks. Over/Under 46.
Houston Texans (+9.5)
The Texans handled their business vs the Bengals. Their defense was the story as they
confounded Andy Dalton and Arian Foster ran for 140 yards and a TD. The offense didn’t blow out Cincinnati, but
the Bengals had a good defense. It’s
hard to look at how ineffective they were against the Patriots. As I said last week, they’re monumentally talented
with stars at all the offensive skill positions. Dynamic though they may be,
the defense is the real star of the Texans.
They are able to pressure the QB without blitzing, which is paramount in
defending the pass. They were embarrassed
last time they faced the Patriots, though, when they surrendered 42 points.
VS
New England Patriots
Tom Brady.
The Defense has improved steadily all year and the regular
season ended with a shutout of Miami. They
rank 9th in points allowed this year, but have been run on pretty
consistently. Their secondary has
improved with the addition of Aqib Talib via trade earlier in the season. Devin
McCourtney has come along and now the team boasts a ball-hawking secondary.
Matchup: There
are numbers that suggest a team beaten by 20 points and later playing that team
in the postseason have had some success (11-11). Plus the Pats drubbed the NY
Jets in 2010, only to lose to them later in the playoffs. Still, I can’t bring
myself to pick the Texans. Plus I
believe in Brady more than Matt Schaub. 31-21
Pats. Over/Under48.5.
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